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Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Keith Kuester
  • André Meier
  • Gernot J. Müller

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a "sovereign risk channel" through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the private sector. If monetary policy is constrained, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In addition, sovereign risk amplifies the effects of negative cyclical shocks. Under those conditions, fiscal retrenchment can help curtail the risk of macroeconomic instability and, in extreme cases, even stimulate economic activity.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): (02)
Pages: F99-F132

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v::y:2013:i::p:f99-f132

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References

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  1. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," Caepr Working Papers 2006-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  2. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.
  3. Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2005. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0670, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 278, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Andreas Schabert & Sweder J.G. van Wijnbergen, 2011. "Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation Targeting Regimes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-064/2/ DSF20, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2000. "The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 163-220.
  7. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Sovereign Debt Risk Premia and Fiscal Policy in Sweden," NBER Working Papers 15810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/228, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Ana M. Aizcorbe & Arthur B. Kennickell & Kevin B. Moore, 2003. "Recent changes in U.S. family finances: evidence from the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-32.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. L’austérité plus que toujours en question
    by jcbriquet in Ressources pour économistes on 2012-04-17 11:32:27
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Cited by:
  1. Beetsma, Roel & Mavromatis, Konstantinos, 2012. "An Analysis of Eurobonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 9244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Gonzalo Caballero, 2013. "Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Great Recession," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(2), pages 15-18, September.
  3. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2014. "Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-73.
  5. Gernot Müller & André Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.

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