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A critical note on "This time is different"

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  • Antoine Parent

    ()
    (Université Nancy 2 et BETA CNRS UMR 7522, Nancy, France)

Abstract

This article is structured as follows: the first section is based on Reinhart and Rogoff’s seminal papers (Am Econ Rev 98(2):339–344, 2008a, b, Am Econ Rev 99(2):466–472, 2009a, This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009b, Am Econ Rev 100(2):573–578, 2010) and text book (2009), which today constitute the new cornerstones of conventional wisdom on the recurrence of financial crises throughout History, their development and aftermath. We deliver a critical view of this attempt to infer some systematic empirical relationship between debt, growth and inflation and underline the absence of core variables in this historical analysis. In Sect. 3, we go back 10 years to illustrate that conventional wisdom was much different at that time, emphasizing the peculiarity of each episode of the financial crises. This raises the issue of the relevancy of the cliometric approach to identify regularities down through History: so, should we trust cliometricians?

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History.

Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 211-219

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Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:6:y:2012:i:2:p:211-219

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Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org
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Related research

Keywords: Financial and banking crises; Public debt; International financial markets; Regulation;

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References

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  1. Dora Costa & Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "What is Cliometrica," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13502, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2006. "How Progressive is the U.S. Federal Tax System? A Historical and International Perspective," NBER Working Papers 12404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ann M. Carlos, 2010. "Reflection on reflections: review essay on reflections on the cliometric revolution: conversations with economic historians," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 4(1), pages 97-111, January.
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2006. "The Evolution of Top Incomes: A Historical and International Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 200-205, May.
  7. Jean-Luc Demeulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "How much could economics gain from history: the contribution of cliometrics," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 1(1), pages 7-17, April.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality In The United States, 1913-1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 1-39, February.
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Cited by:
  1. James M. Nason & Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "Business cycles and financial crises: the roles of credit supply and demand shocks," Working Papers 12-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers halshs-00700471, HAL.
  3. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 145-163, March.

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