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Business cycles and financial crises: the roles of credit supply and demand shocks

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  • James M. Nason
  • Ellis W. Tallman

Abstract

This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from non-crisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to 2010. The sample covers several episodes useful for understanding U.S. economic and financial history, which generate variation in the data that aids in identifying credit supply and demand shocks. We identify these shocks within MS-BVARs by tying credit supply and demand movements to inside money and its intertemporal price. The model space is limited to stochastic volatility (SV) in the errors of the MS-BVARs. Of the 15 MS-BVARs estimated, the data favor a MS-BVAR in which economic and financial crises and non-crisis business cycle regimes recur throughout the long annual sample. The best-fitting MS-BVAR also isolates SV regimes in which shocks to inside money dominate aggregate fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 12-24.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:12-24

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Keywords: Markov processes;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish & Hugh Rockoff, 2011. "Why didn’t Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or ...)?," NBER Working Papers 17312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 14422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Felton, Andrew, 2009. "The first global financial crisis of the 21st century: Part II, June-December, 2008," MPRA Paper 13604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "The Panic of 1907," Working Paper 1228, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Gary Gorton & Lixin Huang, 2002. "Bank Panics and the Endogeneity of Central Banking," NBER Working Papers 9102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Daniel Sanches, 2013. "On the welfare properties of fractional reserve banking," Working Papers 13-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 04 Feb 2013.
  7. Ellis W. Tallman & Elmus R. Wicker, 2010. "Banking and financial crises in United States history: what guidance can history offer policymakers?," Working Paper 1009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Hoag, Christopher, 2005. "Deposit drains on "interest-paying" banks before financial crises," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 567-585, October.
  9. Hugh Rockoff, 2013. "O.M.W. Sprague (the Man who “Wrote the Book” on Financial Crises) and the Founding of the Federal Reserve," NBER Working Papers 19758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gary Gorton & Andrew Winton, 2002. "Financial Intermediation," NBER Working Papers 8928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Laurent Le Maux & Laurence Scialom, 2013. "Central banks and financial stability: rediscovering the lender-of-last-resort practice in a finance economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 1-16.
  12. Bernstein, Asaf & Hughson, Eric & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 40-53, October.
  13. Margaret Jacobson & Ellis W. Tallman, 2013. "Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: private and public sources," Working Paper 1304, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  14. Daniel R. Sanches, 2013. "Banking crises and the role of bank coalitions," Working Papers 13-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 04 Feb 2014.

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