Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907

Contents:

Author Info

  • Moen, Jon R.
  • Tallman, Ellis W.

Abstract

This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from noncrisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to 2010. The sample covers several episodes useful for understanding U.S. economic and financial history, which generate variation in the data that aids in identifying credit supply and demand shocks. We identify these shocks within MS-BVARs by tying credit supply and demand movements to inside money and its intertemporal price. The model space is limited to stochastic volatility (SV) in the errors of the MS-BVARs. Of the 15 MS-BVARs estimated, the data favor a MS-BVAR in which economic and financial crises and noncrisis business cycle regimes recur throughout the long annual sample. The best-fitting MS-BVAR also isolates SV regimes in which shocks to inside money dominate aggregate fluctuations.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0022050700024682
File Function: link to article abstract page
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal The Journal of Economic History.

Volume (Year): 60 (2000)
Issue (Month): 01 (March)
Pages: 145-163

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:60:y:2000:i:01:p:145-163_02

Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_JEHProvider-Email:journals@cambridge.org

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  3. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December.
  4. Thomas Helbling & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Raju Huidrom, 2010. "Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 10/261, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "Financial Cycles," IMF Working Papers 11/76, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Chin Alycia & Warusawitharana Missaka, 2010. "Financial Market Shocks during the Great Depression," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, September.
  9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  10. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, January.
  11. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
  12. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Great Moderation(s) and U.S. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 1140, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  14. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-61, April.
  15. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  16. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James & Mason, Joseph, 2005. "Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 753-73, August.
  17. Antoine Parent, 2012. "A critical note on "This time is different"," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(2), pages 211-219, May.
  18. Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Donaldson, R. Glen, 1992. "Sources of panics : Evidence from the weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 277-305, November.
  20. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Front matter, The American Business Cycle. Continuity and Change," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages -15 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
  22. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153, October.
  25. Canova, Fabio, 1991. "The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(3), pages 689-713, August.
  26. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  27. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1982. "The Behavior of Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Karamé, Fréderic & Juillard, Michel & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Jul 2014.
  29. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  30. Claude DIEBOLT & Antoine PARENT & Jamel TRABELSI, 2012. "Revisiting the 1929 Crisis : Was the Fed Pre-Keynesian ? New Lessons from the Past," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 37(2), pages 280-297.
  31. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2012. "Loan supply shocks and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1469, European Central Bank.
  32. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  33. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552 Elsevier.
  3. Daniel Sanches, 2013. "On the welfare properties of fractional reserve banking," Working Papers 13-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 04 Feb 2013.
  4. Laurent Le Maux & Laurence Scialom, 2013. "Central banks and financial stability: rediscovering the lender-of-last-resort practice in a finance economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 1-16.
  5. Gary Gorton & Lixin Huang, 2002. "Bank Panics and the Endogeneity of Central Banking," NBER Working Papers 9102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ellis W. Tallman & Elmus R. Wicker, 2010. "Banking and financial crises in United States history: what guidance can history offer policymakers?," Working Paper 1009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Hoag, Christopher, 2005. "Deposit drains on "interest-paying" banks before financial crises," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 567-585, October.
  8. Daniel R. Sanches, 2013. "Banking crises and the role of bank coalitions," Working Papers 13-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 04 Feb 2014.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Felton, Andrew, 2009. "The first global financial crisis of the 21st century: Part II, June-December, 2008," MPRA Paper 13604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Margaret Jacobson & Ellis W. Tallman, 2013. "Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: private and public sources," Working Paper 1304, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  11. Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Prieto, Esteban, 2013. "Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages," CEPR Discussion Papers 9436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek & Cristina Fuentes Albero & Dario Caldara, 2013. "On the Identification of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2014. "Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 14-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  14. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish & Hugh Rockoff, 2011. "Why didn’t Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or ...)?," NBER Working Papers 17312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bernstein, Asaf & Hughson, Eric & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 40-53, October.
  16. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 14422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "The Panic of 1907," Working Paper 1228, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  18. Hugh Rockoff, 2013. "O.M.W. Sprague (the Man who “Wrote the Book” on Financial Crises) and the Founding of the Federal Reserve," NBER Working Papers 19758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:60:y:2000:i:01:p:145-163_02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.