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Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence

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Author Info

  • James M. Nason

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Gregor W. Smith

    (Queen's University)

Abstract

The Great Moderation refers to the fall in US output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the US experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Asset pricing theory predicts that moderations -- real or nominal -- influence interest rates. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier 1946 moderation in output and consumption growth was comparable to that of 1984. To assess the impact of these moderations, we also isolate the 1969-1983 Great Inflation using quarterly data since 1947. We examine the quantitative predictions of a consumption-based asset pricing model for shifts in the unconditional average of US interest rates across these time periods. A central finding is that such shifts probably were related to changes in average inflation rather than to moderations in inflation and consumption growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 30

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:30

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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

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Related research

Keywords: Great Moderation; asset pricing; interest rate;

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References

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  1. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Wachter, Jessica, 2006. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  19. repec:rus:hseeco:278548 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. James M. Nason & Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "Business cycles and financial crises: the roles of credit supply and demand shocks," Working Papers 12-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201204, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  3. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "The Time Varying Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Real Output," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201203, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  4. Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2009. "How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting Be? Suggestions for the Future of Canada's Targeting Regime," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 293, August.

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