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The Reliability of Historical Macroeconomic Data for Comparing Cyclical Stability

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  • Weir, David R.

Abstract

The question at issue is whether estimates of GNP and unemployment before 1930 exaggerate cyclical volatility enough to produce a false impression of increasing economic stability over the twentieth century. Based on research to be reported in detail at a later date, the answer is no. The range of possible exaggerations is small relative to the observed change.

Suggested Citation

  • Weir, David R., 1986. "The Reliability of Historical Macroeconomic Data for Comparing Cyclical Stability," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 353-365, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:46:y:1986:i:02:p:353-365_04
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    Cited by:

    1. Harrison, Sharon & Weder, Mark, 2009. "Technological change and the roaring twenties: A neoclassical perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 363-375, September.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    3. Nason James M. & Smith Gregor W, 2008. "Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, November.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "A Century of Labor-Leisure Distortions," NBER Working Papers 8774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barry Eichengreen, 1987. "Trade deficits in the long run," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 239-285.
    6. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September.
    8. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. ODUSOLA, Ayodele & AKINLO, Anthony, 2001. "Output, Inflation, And Exchange Rate In Developing Countries: An Application To Nigeria," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 307343, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    10. Donaldson, Cam, 1995. "Economics, public health and health care purchasing: reinventing the wheel?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 79-90, August.
    11. Brambleby, Peter, 1995. "A survivor's guide to programme budgeting," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 127-145, August.
    12. Harrison, Sharon & Weder, Mark, 2009. "Technological change and the roaring twenties: A neoclassical perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 363-375, September.
    13. Mitton, Craig R. & Donaldson, Cam, 2003. "Setting priorities and allocating resources in health regions: lessons from a project evaluating program budgeting and marginal analysis (PBMA)," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 335-348, June.
    14. Mitton, Craig & Donaldson, Cam, 2002. "Setting priorities in Canadian regional health authorities: a survey of key decision makers," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 39-58, April.
    15. Allen, Steven G., 1989. "Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259452, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Mulligan, Casey B., 2001. "A Century of Labor-Leisure Distortions," Working Papers 170, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    17. Parker, Randall E. & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Further evidence on the stabilization of postwar economic fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-298.

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