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Stock market volatility and the Great Moderation

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  • Sean D. Campbell
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    Abstract

    Using data on corporate profits forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, I decompose real stock returns into a fundamental news component and a return news component and analyze the effects of the Great Moderation on each. Empirically, the response of each component of real stock returns to the Great Moderation has been quite different. The volatility of fundamental news shocks has declined by 50% since the onset of the Great Moderation, suggesting a strong link between underlying fundamentals and the broader macroeconomy. Alternatively, the volatility of return news shocks has remained stable over the Great Moderation period. Since the bulk of stock market volatility is attributable to return shocks, the Great Moderation has not had a significant effect on stock return volatility. These empirical findings are shown to be consistent with Campbell and Cochrane's (1999) habit formation asset pricing model. In the face of a large decline in consumption volatility, the volatility of fundamental news shocks declines while the volatility of return shocks stagnate. Ultimately, the effect of a Great Moderation in consumption volatility on overall stock return volatility in the habit formation model is slight.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2005-47.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2005-47

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    Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Stock market;

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    References

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    3. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, 03.
    4. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
    5. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2004. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," NBER Working Papers 10270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    9. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06.
    13. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 1990. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Great moderations and U.S. interest rates: unconditional evidence," Working Paper 2008-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Brady, Ryan R., 2008. "Structural breaks and consumer credit: Is consumption smoothing finally a reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1246-1268, September.
    3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
    5. Marco Cipriani & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2007. "Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center," Working Papers 212007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. McSweeney, Brendan, 2009. "The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 835-848, August.
    7. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    8. Anastasios G. Malliaris & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2011. "Dividends, Momentum, and Macroeconomic Variables as Determinants of the US Equity Premium Across Economic Regimes," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 27-53, September.

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