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Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification

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  • Engsted, Tom
  • Pedersen, Thomas Q.
  • Tanggaard, Carsten

Abstract

We analyze the pitfalls involved in VAR based return decompositions. First, we show that recent criticism of such decompositions is misplaced and builds on invalid VAR models and erroneous interpretations. Second, we derive the requirements needed for VAR decompositions to be valid. A crucial – but often neglected – requirement is that the asset price needs to be included as a state variable in the VAR. In equity return decompositions this requirement is equivalent to including the dividend–price ratio in the VAR. Finally, we clarify the intriguing issue of the role of the residual component in return decompositions. In a properly specified first-order VAR, it makes no difference whether cash flow news or discount rate news is backed out residually, and it makes no difference whether both news components are computed directly or one of them is backed out residually.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 1255-1265

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:5:p:1255-1265

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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Keywords: Return variance decomposition; News components; VAR model; Information set; Predictive variables; Redundant models;

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References

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2016, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Ben Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  9. Ammer, John & Campbell, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Scholarly Articles 3382857, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
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  14. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
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  18. John Campbell & Jianping Mei, 1993. "Where do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the Sources of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 4329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mahmoud Botshekan & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas, 2010. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What is actually priced?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-116/2/DSF 3, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
  3. Guillén, Montserrat & Sarabia, José María & Prieto, Faustino, 2013. "Simple risk measure calculations for sums of positive random variables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 273-280.
  4. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2013. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-04, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Galsband, Victoria, 2012. "Downside risk of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2379-2388.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk, 2010. "Hard Times," NBER Working Papers 16222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
  8. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Oil shocks, stock market prices, and the U.S. dividend yield decomposition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 639-649.
  9. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
  10. Hans Haller & Ming Yi, 2013. "Paths of a Continuum of Independent Random Variables," Working Papers e07-44, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.

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