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The Time Varying Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to Real Output

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Author Info

  • John W. Keating

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Victor J. Valcarcel

    (Department of Economics, Texas Tech University)

Abstract

Annual changes in volatility of U.S. real output growth and inflation are documented in data from 1870 to 2009 using a time varying parameter VAR model. Both volatilities rise quickly with World War I and its aftermath, stay relatively high until the end of World War II and drop rapidly until the mid to late-1960s. This Postwar Moderation represents the largest decline in volatilities in our sample, much greater than the Great Moderation that began in the 1980s. Fluctuations in output growth volatility are primarily associated with permanent shocks to output while fluctuations in inflation volatility are primarily accounted for by temporary shocks to output. Conditioning on temporary shocks, inflation and output growth are positively correlated. This finding and the ensuing impulse responses are consistent with an aggregate demand interpretation for the temporary shocks. Our model suggests aggregate demand played a key role in the changes in inflation volatility. Conversely, the two variables are negatively correlated when conditioning on permanent shocks, suggesting that these disturbances are associated primarily with aggregate supply. Our results suggest that aggregate supply played an important role in output volatility fluctuations. Most of the impulse responses support an aggregate supply interpretation of permanent shocks. However, for the pre-World War I period, we find that at longer horizons a permanent increase in output is generally associated with an increase in the price level that is frequently statistically significant. This evidence suggests aggregate demand may have had a long-run positive effect on output during the pre-World War I period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 201203.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201203

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Related research

Keywords: The Great Moderation; stochastic volatility; permanent-transitory decompositions; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; structural vector autoregressions.;

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References

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  1. Nason James M. & Smith Gregor W, 2008. "Great Moderation(s) and US Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, November.
  2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 12022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
  4. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  5. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2009. "Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 09-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Keating, John & Valcarcel, Victor, 2012. "Greater moderations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 168-171.
  7. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
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Cited by:
  1. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
  2. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "Greater Moderations," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201202, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  3. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201204, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.

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