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Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes

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  • Tagkalakis, Athanasios

Abstract

This paper examines the links between asset price movements and fiscal adjustments. Our findings suggest that higher asset prices improve fiscal balances and contribute to sustained consolidation. This refers in particular to real equity and real residential property prices. We find evidence that revenue windfalls due to higher residential, commercial property and equity prices can be sustained, thus, improving revenue and primary balances. There is evidence of a positive association of some asset prices changes with expenditure adjustments. Fiscal adjustments and in particular sharp spending cuts are more likely to be successful if undertaken in periods of dire budgetary and economic conditions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 206-223

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:206-223

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Related research

Keywords: Asset prices Fiscal adjustments Primary balance Revenue Expenditure;

References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2009. "Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications," Working Paper Series 1071, European Central Bank.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When? On the Political Economy of Reforms," NBER Working Papers 12049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "The importance of composition of fiscal policy: evidence from different exchange rate regimes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2253-2279, September.
  4. Ludger Schuknecht & Albert Jaeger, 2004. "Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior," IMF Working Papers 04/54, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Morris, Richard & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2007. "Structural balances and revenue windfalls: the role of asset prices revisited," Working Paper Series 0737, European Central Bank.
  6. Lambertini Luisa & Tavares José A, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for the EMU," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
  7. Mika Tujula & Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Budget balances in OECD countries: what makes them change?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-14, March.
  8. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
  9. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1.
  10. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Working Papers 116, Bank of Greece.
  11. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2008. "Fiscal Policy, Housing and Stock Prices," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/58, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
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  13. Jose Tavares, 2000. "Does Right or Left Matter? Cabinets, Credibility and Fiscal Adjustments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1548, Econometric Society.
  14. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. von Hagen, Jurgen & Strauch, Rolf R, 2001. " Fiscal Consolidations: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Success," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 327-46, December.
  16. Rudiger Ahrend & Pietro Catte & Robert W.R. Price, 2006. "Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy: How Monetary Conditions Affect Fiscal Consolidation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 521, OECD Publishing.
  17. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. Ant�nio Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
  19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-72, May.
  20. Eschenbach, Felix & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2002. "Asset prices and fiscal balances," Working Paper Series 0141, European Central Bank.
  21. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "Fiscal adjustments: do labor and product market institutions matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 389-411, June.
  22. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
  25. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "How Does Fiscal Policy React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," NIPE Working Papers 24/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "The output effects of systematic and non-systematic fiscal policy changes in Greece," Working Papers 167, Bank of Greece.
  3. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2011. "Asset price volatility and government revenue," Working Papers 133, Bank of Greece.
  4. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustment: A Tale of two Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 4401, CESifo Group Munich.

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