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Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes

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  • Tagkalakis, Athanasios

Abstract

This paper examines the links between asset price movements and fiscal adjustments. Our findings suggest that higher asset prices improve fiscal balances and contribute to sustained consolidation. This refers in particular to real equity and real residential property prices. We find evidence that revenue windfalls due to higher residential, commercial property and equity prices can be sustained, thus, improving revenue and primary balances. There is evidence of a positive association of some asset prices changes with expenditure adjustments. Fiscal adjustments and in particular sharp spending cuts are more likely to be successful if undertaken in periods of dire budgetary and economic conditions.

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  • Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:206-223
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    Cited by:

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    4. Yang, Weonho & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment: A tale of two approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 31-60.
    5. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 358-362.
    6. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Asset price volatility and government revenue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2532-2543.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    8. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi & Phocenah Nyatanga, 2023. "Threshold of the CAPB That Can Be Attributed to Fiscal Consolidation Episodes in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, May.
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    10. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    11. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián & de Castro, Francisco, 2016. "Do Spanish fiscal regimes follow the euro-area trends? Evidence from Markov-Switching fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 484-494.

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