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Boom-Bust Phases in Asset Prices and Fiscal Policy Behavior

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Author Info

  • Albert Jaeger
  • Ludger Schuknecht

Abstract

Boom and bust phases in asset prices have become a pervasive feature of macroeconomic developments in many advanced economies. This paper studies fiscal policy during boom-bust phases in asset prices and draws several conclusions. First, expansions and contractions in economic activity during such boom-bust phases tend to be highly persistent, cyclical turning points are harder to forecast, and the margins of error for output gap estimates can be large. Second, conventional estimates of revenue elasticities seem not to allow an accurate assessment of fiscal stance or the strength of underlying fiscal positions during boom-bust phases. Third, boom-bust phases tend to exacerbate already existing procyclical policy biases, as well as political-economy biases, toward higher spending and public-debt ratios.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 45-66

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:6:p:45-66

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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

Related research

Keywords: asset prices; boom-bust cycles; cyclical adjustment; deficit bias; fiscal policy;

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References

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  1. Albert Jaeger, 2003. "Corporate Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 03/117, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  3. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2003. "The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1539-1560, August.
  4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  5. Jose Marin, 2002. "Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline," Working Paper Series 193, European Central Bank.
  6. Richard Hemming & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 218, International Monetary Fund.
  7. repec:imf:imfocp:217 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Buti, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Franco, D., 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact: Grand design or internal adjustment?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152958, Tilburg University.
  9. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  11. Carsten Detken & Frank Smets, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
  12. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59 Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 127, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Pablo Hernandez Cos & Matthias F. Mohr & Mika Tujula & Carine Bouthevillain & Geert Langenus & Sandro Momigliano & Gerrit Van Den Dool, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 077, European Central Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "How Does Fiscal Policy React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," NIPE Working Papers 24/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "The effect of asset price volatility on fiscal policy outcomes," Working Papers 106, Bank of Greece.
  3. Christian Fahrholz & Cezary Wojcik, 2010. "The Bail-Out! Positive political economics of Greek-type crises in the EMU," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 413, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  4. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Yamada, Junji, 2011. "Stock price targeting and fiscal deficit in Japan: Why did the fiscal deficit increase during Japan’s lost decades?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 447-464.
  5. J. de Haan & H. Berger & D. Jansen, 2003. "The end of the stability and growth pact?," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 748, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Ludger Schuknecht, 2004. "EU fiscal rules: issues and lessons from political economy," Working Paper Series 421, European Central Bank.
  7. Lars Jonung & Ludger Schuknecht & Mika Tujula, 2005. "The boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984-1995 in an international perspective," European Economy - Economic Papers 237, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  8. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 231-251, January.
  9. Carsten Detken & Frank Smets, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
  10. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
  11. Ramón Adalid & Carsten Detken, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.

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