Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy: How Monetary Conditions Affect Fiscal Consolidation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rudiger Ahrend
  • Pietro Catte
  • Robert W.R. Price

Abstract

This paper assesses how and in what circumstances, fiscal consolidations are affected by monetary conditions, using data covering 24 OECD countries over the past 25 years, Focusing on fiscal consolidation “episodes”, it is found that these tend to occur when large budget deficits threaten sustainability and usually when other macroeconomic indicators -- inflation, the exchange rate and unemployment -- suggest a “crisis” situation. After controlling for these factors, the paper finds strong econometric evidence that consolidation efforts are more likely to be pursued and to succeed if the monetary policy stance is eased in the initial stages of the episode, thus contributing to offsetting the contractionary impact of fiscal tightening. However, the link is far from mechanical and there are also counter-examples where monetary easing was followed by aborted consolidation efforts. Central bank independence explicitly precludes direct responses of monetary policy to fiscal actions. However, the paper also provides evidence that the indirect reaction of monetary policy and financial markets to fiscal consolidation may be influenced by the quality of fiscal adjustment, as short and long-term interest rates are more likely to fall during episodes characterised by greater reliance on current expenditure cuts. While this means that causality runs both ways, the paper provides evidence that, even after controlling for this proxy of fiscal adjustment quality, changes in monetary stance do affect the chances that a fiscal retrenchment plan will be successfully pursued. Interactions entre la politique monétaire et budgétaire : L'effet des conditions monétaires sur les consolidations budgétaires Cet article, utilisant des données relatives à 24 pays de l’OCDE sur les 25 dernières années, examine comment et dans quelles circonstances des ajustements budgétaires sont affectés par les conditions monétaires. Les ajustements budgétaires interviennent le plus souvent lorsque d’importants déficits menacent la soutenabilité des finances publiques, ou lorsque d'autres indicateurs macroéconomiques -- inflation, taux de change ou niveau de chômage -- sont très dégradés. En contrôlant ces variables, l’article apporte des preuves économétriques robustes suivant lesquelles les efforts de consolidation budgétaire ont davantage de chance d’être mis en oeuvre et couronnés de succès si la politique monétaire est accommodante dans la période initiale de l’ajustement, contribuant ainsi à amortir l’effet défavorable pour la croissance du resserrement budgétaire. Le lien n’est cependant pas mécanique, comme l’atteste l’existence d’épisodes de desserrement monétaire suivis d’un abandon des efforts d’ajustement fiscal. Par ailleurs, si l’indépendance des banques centrales fait explicitement obstacle à une réponse directe de la politique monétaire aux opérations budgétaires, l’article montre que la qualité de l’ajustement fiscal peut indirectement influer sur les banques centrales et les marches financiers. Par exemple, les taux d'intérêt à court et long terme semblent se replier davantage si l’ajustement budgétaire prend la forme d’une maîtrise stricte des dépenses courantes. Au total, l’influence entre l’ajustement budgétaire et la conduite de la politique monétaire est réciproque mais l’article montre que, même en contrôlant la qualité d'ajustement budgétaire, la politique monétaire continue à influencer la probabilité d’une consolidation des finances publiques d’être menée à bien.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/414663503428
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 521.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:521-en

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.oecd.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: financial markets; fiscal policy; monetary policy; fiscal adjustment; fiscal consolidation; interest rate; quality of fiscal adjustment; policy co-ordination; fiscal stance; monetary conditions; central bank; ajustement budgétaire; consolidation budgétaire; coordination des politiques économiques; marchés financiers; modalités de l'ajustement budgétaire; taux d'intérêt; conditions monétaires; banque centrale; politique monétaire; politique budgétaire;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Romain Duval & Jørgen Elmeskov & Lukas Vogel, 2007. "Structural Policies and Economic Resilience to Shocks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 567, OECD Publishing.
  2. Canale, Rosaria Rita & Foresti, Pasquale & Marani, Ugo & Napolitano, Oreste, 2007. "On Keynesian effects of (apparent) non-Keynesian fiscal policies," MPRA Paper 3742, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007.
  3. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," NIPE Working Papers, NIPE - Universidade do Minho 17/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Giovanni Callegari & Giovanni Melina & Nicoletta Batini, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 12/190, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers halshs-00613161, HAL.
  6. Salvador Barrios & Sven Langedijk & Lucio Pench, 2010. "EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis. Lessons from past experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 418, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  7. David Lodge & Marta Rodriguez-Vives, 2013. "How long can austerity persist? The factors that sustain fiscal consolidations," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 2(1), pages 5-24, June.
  8. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
  9. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "Fiscal adjustments: do labor and product market institutions matter?," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 389-411, June.
  10. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
  11. Romain Duval & Lukas Vogel, 2008. "Economic resilience to shocks: The role of structural policies," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-38.
  12. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
  13. Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 3. Long-Run Projections and Fiscal Gap Calculations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 934, OECD Publishing.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:521-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.