IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mlb/wpaper/1078.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Ageing and Taxation in New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • John Creedy, Jamas Enright, Norman Gemmell & Angela Mellish

Abstract

This paper considers the implications for personal income tax and Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues of population ageing in New Zealand. It considers‘pure’ ageing effects; that is, population size is held constant but its age distribution changes over the next 40 years. It might be expected that an increase in the share of pensioners would reduce aggregate incomes while increasing the proportion consumed. However, with age-earnings profiles having a peak in the 45-54 age range, and the expected average age of the population over the next 40 years transiting this age range, younger individuals with increasing incomes are expected to approximately counteract the declining incomes of older individuals. But ageing is expected to increase the dependence of income tax and GST revenues on pension choices. Without changes in New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) settings, its cost is expected approximately to double over the next 40 years, with most of this occurring over the next 20 years. Changes to NZS rates have a non-trivial effect on the share of income tax and GST contributed from NZS incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy, Jamas Enright, Norman Gemmell & Angela Mellish, 2009. "Population Ageing and Taxation in New Zealand," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1078, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/801168/1078.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    2. Guest, Ross, 2007. "Innovations in the macroeconomic modelling of population ageing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-119, January.
    3. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    4. José Alvardo & John Creedy, 998. "Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1396.
    5. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    6. John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, March.
    7. Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, December.
    8. Ross Guest, 2007. "Can OECD Countries Afford Demographic Change?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 40(2), pages 149-164, June.
    9. Guest, R, 2005. "A Potential Dividend from Workforce Ageing in Australia," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 135-154.
    10. John Creedy (ed.), 2007. "New Developments in the Economics of Population Ageing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12568.
    11. John Creedy (ed.), 1995. "The Economics Of Ageing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 540.
    12. Ross Guest, 2006. "Population ageing, fiscal pressure and tax smoothing: a CGE application to Australia," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 183-203, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Cylus, Jonathan & Williams, Gemma & Carrino, Ludovico & Roubal, Tomas & Barber, Sarah, 2022. "Population ageing and health financing: A method for forecasting two sides of the same coin," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(12), pages 1226-1232.
    3. Prammer, Doris, 2019. "How does population ageing impact on personal income taxes and social security contributions?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    4. Omar A Aziz & Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/13, New Zealand Treasury.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    2. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    3. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
    5. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. David K. Miles, 2000. "Funded and Unfunded Pension Schemes: Risk, Return and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 239, CESifo.
    9. Whelan, Shane, 2007. "Valuing Ireland's Pension System," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(2-Summer), pages 55-80.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2087 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. James Banks & Carl Emmerson, 2000. "Public and private pension spending: principles, practice and the need for reform," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 1-63, March.
    12. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    13. Jan Hagemejer & Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," EcoMod2014 6868, EcoMod.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13361 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2002. "Fertility, Dependency and Social Security," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 5(4), pages 569-585, December.
    16. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2087 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Julio Lípez Díaz & Zenón J. Ridruejo, "undated". "Cambio demográfico, inmigración y crecimiento económico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 99, FEDEA.
    18. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2003. "Vieillissement et richesse des nations," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 231-275.
    19. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    20. Masakazu Someya & Keiichiro Oizumi & Kazuhiko Oyamada & Ken Itakura, 2012. "Population Aging in the Interdependent Global Economy: A Computational Approach with a Prototype Overlapping Generations Model of Global Trade," EcoMod2012 3925, EcoMod.
    21. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren : Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen," Discussion Papers 585, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    22. Richard Disney & Carl Emmerson & Sarah Smith, 2004. "Pension Reform and Economic Performance in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s," NBER Chapters, in: Seeking a Premier Economy: The Economic Effects of British Economic Reforms, 1980–2000, pages 233-274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Patrick GEORGES & Marcel MERETTE, 2009. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis," EcoMod2009 21500035, EcoMod.
    24. Kruse, Agneta, 2002. "Ageing Populations and Intergenerational Risk-sharing in PAYG Pension Schemes," Working Papers 2002:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dandapani Lokanathan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.