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Accounting for Population Ageing in Tax Microsimulation Modelling by Survey Reweighting

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  • Lixin Cai
  • John Creedy
  • Guyonne Kalb

Abstract

This paper investigates the use of sample reweighting in a behavioural tax microsimulation model, to examine the implications for government taxes and expenditure of population ageing in Australia. First, a calibration approach to sample reweighting is described, producing new weights which achieve specified population totals for selected variables, subject to the constraint that there are minimal adjustments to the weights. Second, the performance of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) weights provided with the 2001 Survey of Income and Housing Cost (SIHC) was examined and it was found that reweighting does not improve the simulation outcomes for the 2001 situation, so the original ABS weights were retained for 2001. Third, the implications of changes in the age distribution of the population were examined, based on population projections to 2050. A ‘pure’ change in the age distribution was examined by keeping the aggregate population size fixed and changing only the relative frequencies in different age-gender groups. Finally, the effects of a policy change to benefit taper rates in Australia were compared for 2001 and 2050 population weights. It is suggested that this type of exercise provides an insight into the implications of changes in the population on government income tax revenue and social security expenditure, indicating likely pressures for policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Accounting for Population Ageing in Tax Microsimulation Modelling by Survey Reweighting," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 935, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:935
    Note: This paper has now been published in: Cai, L., Creedy, J. and Kalb, G. (2006) Accounting for Population Ageing in Tax Microsimulation Modelling by Survey Reweighting, Australian Economic Papers, pp. 18-37.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. José Alvardo & John Creedy, 998. "Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1396.
    2. John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, March.
    3. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan & Mark Harris & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2796.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michal Myck & Mateusz Najsztub, 2015. "Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(1), pages 33-66.
    3. Rae, Allan & Strutt, Anna & Cassells, Sue, 2008. "Towards Analysis of Sustainable Export-Oriented Agriculture: Exploring Land-use Data and CGE Modelling in New Zealand," Conference papers 331734, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2008. "China's economic growth and its real exchange rate," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 123-145.
    5. John Creedy & Jamas Enright & Norman Gemmell & Angela Mellish, 2010. "Population ageing and taxation in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 137-158.
    6. Vandyck, Toon & Van Regemorter, Denise, 2014. "Distributional and regional economic impact of energy taxes in Belgium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 190-203.
    7. Nicolas Hérault, 2010. "Sequential linking of Computable General Equilibrium and microsimulation models: a comparison of behavioural and reweighting techniques," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 35-42.
    8. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling With the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator(MITTS) : Uses and Extensions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 932, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Sebastian Siegloch & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 575-615, August.
    10. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Eric Sommer, 2019. "Demographic change and the European income distribution," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(3), pages 337-357, September.
    11. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    13. Chang, Ching-Cheng & Lee, Duu-Hwa & Lin, Hsin-Chun & Hsu, Shih-Shun, 2009. "An Economy-wide Analysis of Impacts of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan," Conference papers 331901, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Hielke BUDDELMEYER & Nicolas HÉRAULT & Guyonne KALB & Mark VAN ZIJLL DE JONG, 2009. "Linking a Dynamic CGE Model and a Microsimulation Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," EcoMod2009 21500020, EcoMod.
    15. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 73-110, March.
    16. Omar A Aziz & Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/13, New Zealand Treasury.
    17. Toon Vandyck, 2013. "Efficiency and equity aspects of energy taxation," ERSA conference papers ersa13p945, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Jekaterina Navicke, 2020. "Driving factors behind the changes in income distribution in the Baltics: income, policy, demography," GRAPE Working Papers 44, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    19. Navicke, Jekaterina & Kump, Nataša, 2014. "Re-weighting EUROMOD for demographic change: an application on Slovenian and Lithuanian data," EUROMOD Working Papers EM13/14, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.

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