Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
AbstractThis paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance in its series Working Paper Series with number 2838.
Date of creation: 11 Jul 2013
Date of revision:
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Postal: School of Accounting & Commercial Law, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand
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Population; Projections; Stochastic simulation; Social expenditure; Fiscal costs; New Zealand;
Other versions of this item:
- John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
- John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2013. "Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury 13/06, New Zealand Treasury.
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
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- Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
- Alvarado, J. & Creedy, J., 1997.
"Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne
546, The University of Melbourne.
- Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-12, September.
- John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, 03.
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