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Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

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  • Creedy, John
  • Makale, Kathleen

Abstract

This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.

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File URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/handle/10063/2838
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance in its series Working Paper Series with number 2838.

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Date of creation: 11 Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:2838

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Postal: School of Accounting & Commercial Law, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64 (4) 463 5775
Fax: +64 (4) 463 5076
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Web page: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sacl/about/chair-in-public-finance
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Keywords: Population; Projections; Stochastic simulation; Social expenditure; Fiscal costs; New Zealand;

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  1. Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-12, September.
  2. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
  3. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
  4. John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, 03.
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