Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
AbstractThis paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 13/06.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
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Population; projections; stochastic simulation; social expenditure; fiscal costs; New Zealand;
Other versions of this item:
- Creedy, John & Makale, Kathleen, 2013. "Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Working Paper Series 2838, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2013-04-27 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-04-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2013-04-27 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-04-27 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, 03.
- Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
- Alvarado, J. & Creedy, J., 1997.
"Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
546, The University of Melbourne.
- Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-12, September.
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