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Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

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  • John Creedy
  • Kathleen Makale

    ()
    (The Treasury)

Abstract

This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2013/13-06/twp13-06.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 13/06.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/06

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Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
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Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
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Keywords: Population; projections; stochastic simulation; social expenditure; fiscal costs; New Zealand;

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  1. John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, 03.
  2. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
  3. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
  4. Alvarado, J. & Creedy, J., 1997. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 546, The University of Melbourne.
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