This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Frank T. Denton
Christine H. Feaver
Byron G. Spencer

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden".

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~sedap/p/sedap67.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers with number 67.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:67

Contact details of provider:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords: fertility; population; labour force; dependency ratio;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1989. "Macro-effects of Changes in Household Preferences for Children: Simulated History and Future Time Paths," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 165-88.
  3. McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Paul Beaudry & Thomas Lemieux & Daniel Parent, 2000. "What is Happening in the Youth Labour Market in Canada?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 59-83, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Dowd, Tim A & Monaco, Ralph M & Janoska, Jeffry J, 1998. "Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-Term Simulation Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 239-62, September.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by providing information about publications in your institution.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.