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Demographic Change and New Zealand’s Economic Growth

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Author Info
John Bryant () (The Treasury)

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Abstract

New Zealand has, by OECD standards, high birth rates. This has provided New Zealand with a relatively young population and continuing labour force growth. Both these features are, on many accounts, good for economic growth. Yet most discussions of New Zealand’s economic performance and its prospects for moving up the OECD income distribution have paid little attention to demography. This paper defines “demography” narrowly as population size, growth, and age-structure, and examines the likely effects on New Zealand’s growth rate in GDP per capita, relative to the rest of the OECD. The first part of the paper gives a broad overview of trends in population size and age structure in New Zealand and elsewhere in the OECD. The second part describes selected demographic trends in more detail and discusses their economic significance. The overall conclusion is future demographic trends are likely to provide New Zealand with a small advantage, relative to the rest of the OECD.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2003/03-04/twp03-04.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 03/04.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:03/04

Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
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Related research
Keywords: New Zealand OECD demography economic growth

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brander, James A & Dowrick, Steve, 1994. "The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross-National Data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25.
    Other versions:
  2. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 900-918, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Bryant, 2003. "The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/27, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cat Moody, 2006. "Migration and Economic Growth: a 21st Century Perspective," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/02, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-11-13.


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