Does Housing Cost Affect Birth Rates in Taiwan? The ADL Test for Threshold Co-integration
AbstractThis study applied the ADL threshold co-integration model to investigate the relationship between fertility and housing cost in Taiwan. Our empirical results were in favor of the threshold co-integration relationship between crude birth rate and cost of childbearing, such as housing cost and opportunity cost. The asymmetric adjustment process of fertility toward the long-run equilibrium was verified. In general, the effects of housing cost and opportunity cost on fertility in the regime of upper threshold were more significant than that in the regime of lower threshold. Recognizing that housing cost is a major cost of childbearing in terms of family formation, the housing price policy should not be managed from the perspective of the equity of housing affordability but from the perspective of how to maintain the social security.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.
Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC
ADL test; threshold co-integration; house price; low fertility;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George Kapetanios, 2005. "Unit-root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 123-133, 01.
- Stephan Klasen & Andrey Launov, 2006.
"Analysis of the determinants of fertility decline in the Czech Republic,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 25-54, February.
- Klasen, Stephan & Launov, Andrey, 2003. "Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility Decline in the Czech Republic," IZA Discussion Papers 870, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Lisa J. Dettling & Melissa Schettini Kearney, 2011. "House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby," NBER Working Papers 17485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2007.
"A Sieve Bootstrap Test for Cointegration in a Conditional Error Correction Model,"
054, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
- Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "A Sieve Bootstrap Test For Cointegration In A Conditional Error Correction Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 647-681, June.
- Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "A Sieve Bootstrap Test for Cointegration in a Conditional Error Correction Model," Research Memorandum 054, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010.
"A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time,"
Journal of Applied Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2009. "A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time," Economics Series 2009_11, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Namkee Ahn & Pedro Mira, .
"A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries,"
Studies on the Spanish Economy
- Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
- Ahn, N. & Mira, P., 1999. "A Note on the Changing Relationship Between Fertility and Female Employment Rates in Developed Countries," Papers 9903, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2010.
"ADL tests for threshold cointegration,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 241-254, 07.
- Namkee Ahn & Pedro Mira, . "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Working Papers 99-09, FEDEA.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Krinsky, Itzhak & Robb, A Leslie, 1991. "Three Methods for Calculating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities: A Comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 199-209.
- John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
- Cheng, Benjamin S. & Nwachukwu, Savior L. S., 1997. "The effect of education on fertility in Taiwan: A time series analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 95-99, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.