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Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

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Author Info

  • Tim Dowd
  • Ralph Monaco
  • Jeffry Janoska

Abstract

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II 'baby boom' ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/762947110
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

Volume (Year): 10 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 239-262

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Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:10:y:1998:i:3:p:239-262

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Related research

Keywords: Demographics; long-term projections; consumer spending; age structure;

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Cited by:
  1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
  2. Rossella Bardazzi & Marco Barnabani, 2001. "A Long-run Disaggregated Cross-section and Time-series Demand System: An Application to Italy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 365-389.
  3. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic Impacts of Ageing: An Interindustry Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  4. Gerd Ahlert, 2001. "The Economic Effects of the Soccer World Cup 2006 in Germany with Regard to Different Financing," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 109-127.
  5. Martin Distelkamp & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2004. "Demographie und Ökonomie: Einfluss der Bevölkerungsstruktur auf die Konsumnachfrage," GWS Discussion Paper Series 04-1, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.

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