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Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand

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  • John Creedy
  • Grant M. Scobie

Abstract

As the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long-term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This article presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of gross domestic product using simulation. Attention is focused on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition, we explore the impacts of alternative hypotheses about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long-term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions around point estimates of projected social costs. Copyright 2005 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research in its journal The Australian Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 38 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 19-39

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:38:y:2005:i:1:p:19-39

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Cited by:
  1. Julio Lípez Díaz & Zenón J. Ridruejo, . "Cambio demográfico, inmigración y crecimiento económico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 99, FEDEA.
  2. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Accounting for Population Ageing in Tax Microsimulation Modelling by Survey Reweighting," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 935, The University of Melbourne.
  3. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2013. "Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/22, New Zealand Treasury.
  4. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2013. "Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/09, New Zealand Treasury.
  5. Lassila , Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2008. "Population ageing and fiscal sustainability in Finland: a stochastic analysis," Research Discussion Papers 28/2008, Bank of Finland.
  6. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 67, McMaster University.
  7. Ball, Christopher & Creedy, John, 2013. "Tax Policy with Uncertain Future Costs: Some Simple Models," Working Paper Series 2839, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
  8. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2013. "Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/06, New Zealand Treasury.

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