This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Frank T. Denton
Byron G. Spencer

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The aging of the population is expected to result in substantial increases in the costs of maintaining health care and pension programs, and that is a source of widespread concern. However, a proper assessment requires that attention be given to all categories of government expenditure, including education and others associated with younger age groups, and not just those associated with the older population. It requires also that privately provided goods and services be considered, since their costs must be charged against the same national income as publicly provided ones. Beyond that, it is important to recognize that population change affects not only the demand side of the economy, but also the supply side -- the economy’s productive capacity. An important conclusion is that while other influences will no doubt play a role, demographic effects by themselves are likely to cause government expenditure (all categories, all levels of government combined) to increase by no more than the rate of growth of the population, and by less than the rate of growth of the gross domestic product. Taking public and private costs together, and assigning appropriate weights to different age groups, the overall “dependency ratio” can be expected to remain at its current low level for another decade and a half or two decades, and then to rise as the baby boom generation retires in large numbers. However, the projected future ratio never reaches the levels of the 1950s and 1960s. Although the overall “burden” of population aging is manageable, major adjustments will be required in the coming decades, especially in the area of federal/provincial cost sharing. For the most part, though, the effects of population aging are predictable, slow, and some time off.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://socserv.socsci.mcmaster.ca/econ/rsrch/papers/archive/99-03.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 1999-03.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:1999-03

Contact details of provider:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1998. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Working Papers 6447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    Other versions:
  4. F.T. Denton & C. Feaver & B.G. Spencer, 1996. "The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 317, McMaster University.
    Other versions:
  5. Ronald Lee & Jonathan Skinner, 1999. "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 117-140, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Poterba, James M & Venti, Steven F & Wise, David A, 1996. "How Retirement Saving Programs Increase Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 91-112, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Clark, Robert L & Kreps, Juanita & Spengler, Joseph J, 1978. "Economics of Aging: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 919-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Immigration, Labour Force, and the Age Structure of the Population," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 24, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Axel Borsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in Germany," NBER Working Papers 6153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  11. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 32, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Michael D. Hurd, 1993. "The Effect of Labor Market Rigidities on the Labor Force Behavior of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Paul Johnson, 1996. "Grey Horizons: Who Pays for Old Age in the 21st Century?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(3), pages 261-271. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. David K. Foot, 1984. "The Demographic Future of Fiscal Federalism in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 10(4), pages 406-414, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gramlich, Edward M, 1996. "Different Approaches for Dealing with Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 55-66, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Xiaofen Lin, 1997. "Saving Before and After Retirement: A Study of Canadian Couples, 1969-1992," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 13, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
  17. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. John Burbidge & Deborah Fretz & Michael R. Veall, 1998. "Canadian and American Saving Rates and the Role of RRSPs," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(2), pages 259-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Schieber, Sylvester J & Shoven, John B, 1996. "Social Security Reform: Around the World in 80 Ways," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 373-77, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. M. S. Marzouk, 1991. "Aging, Age-Specific Health Care Costs and the Future Health Care Burden in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(4), pages 490-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Jonathan Gruber, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in Canada," NBER Working Papers 6308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "How Old is Old? Revising the Definition Based on Life Table Criteria," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 2, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. John Burbidge, 1996. "Public Pensions in Canada," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
  25. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "Population Aging and the Maintenance of Social Support Systems," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 9, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Peter Diamond, 1996. "Public Provision of Pensions: The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-6, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  29. Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1996. "Social Security Privatization: A Structure for Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. Echevarria, Cruz A, 1995. "On Age Distribution of Population, Government Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 301-13, August.
  31. Lee, Ronald & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1998. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 237-41, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Osberg, Lars, 1993. "Is It Retirement or Unemployment? Induced 'Retirement' and Constrained Labour Supply among Older Workers," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 505-19, April.
  33. Jacques Henripin, 1994. "The Financial Consequences of Population Aging," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 20(1), pages 78-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Albert Jaeger & Sheetal K. Chand, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  35. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne, 1999. "How do retirement tests affect the labour supply of older men?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 27-51, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Carroll, Chris & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Why have private savings rates in the United States and Canada diverged?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-279, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You may want to explore EconPapers, which displays the same data as IDEAS in a different way.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.