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The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Christine H. Feaver
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

This paper makes available a number of projections of the age-sex distribution of the Canadian population for the 45-year period 1996 to 2041 and comparisons with the previous 45-year period. The projections combine assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and migration so as to produce future populations characterised as "medium", "old", "young", "high immigration" and "low immigration". Supplementary calculations include growth rates, for both the total population and selected age groups, and various types of dependency ratios, including ones with a range of age-differentiated weights. It is concluded that substantial aging of the Canadian population appears virtually certain but, based on the demographic evidence, the "dependency burden" is likely to remain below the peak levels attained during the baby boom.

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File URL: http://socserv.socsci.mcmaster.ca/iesop/papers/iesop_03.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers with number 3.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:iesopp:3

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Keywords: population; forecasts;

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Cited by:
  1. Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University.
  2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 340, McMaster University.
  3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-03, McMaster University.
  4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003. "Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 383, McMaster University.
  5. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
  6. Susan A. McDaniel, 2003. "Toward Disentangling Policy Implications of Economic and Demographic Changes in Canada's Aging Population," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(4), pages 491-509, December.

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