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Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

The rate of growth of GDP can be expressed as the sum of the rates of growth of the population, the proportion of the population from which the labour force is drawn, the overall labour force participation rate, the employment rate, and the aggregate labour productivity ratio. Making use of this simple accounting identity we examine the contributions of the various components to the growth of GDP and GDP per capita in the half-century 1951-2001, decade by decade, and the prospective contributions to future growth under alternative demographic, participation rate, and productivity assumptions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers with number 102.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:102

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Keywords: population change; economic growth; simulation;

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References

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  1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "MEDS-D Users' Manual," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 137, McMaster University.
  2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2000. "Some Demographic Consequences of Revising the Definition of 'Old' to Reflect Future Changes in Life Table Probabilities," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 22, McMaster University.
  3. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
  4. F.T. Denton & C. Feaver & B.G. Spencer, 1996. "The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 317, McMaster University.
  5. K. Mc Morrow & W. Roeger, 1999. "The economic consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 138, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
  7. repec:fth:eeccco:138 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas A. Wilson, 2003. "A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 46-49, Fall.

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