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A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada

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  • Thomas A. Wilson

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    Abstract

    In the first contribution to the Symposium included in this volume on Future Productivity Growth in Canada, Thomas Wilson of the University of Toronto presents forecasts based on the FOCUS macroeconometric model of the Canadian economy. This model projects labour productivity growth to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent over the 2002-2025 period. Wilson is somewhat more optimistic, seeing labour productivity growth of around 2 per cent per year. Reasons behind his more rosy scenario include a greater pace of capital deepening due to much slower labour force growth, the realization of productivity gains from past investments in information and communications technologies, a mitigation of future business cycles due to greater use of automatic stabilizers, and continued benefits from trade liberalization.

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    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/ipm/7/wilson-e.pdf
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    File Function: version en francais, pp:55-59
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Centre for the Study of Living Standards in its journal International Productivity Monitor.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2003)
    Issue (Month): (Fall)
    Pages: 46-49

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    Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:7:y:2003:5

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    Related research

    Keywords: FOCUS Model; Macroeconomics; Simulation; Forecast; Long Term Growth; Total Factor Productivity; Labour Productivity; Canada;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
    2. Dungan, D. Peter & Wilson, Thomas A., 1991. "Macroeconomic effects and sensitivity analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 435-457.
    3. Peter Dungan, 2002. "The Impact of Productivity Growth on Government Fiscal Balances," The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress, in: Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director & France St-Hilaire, Vice-President , Research & Keith Banting, Di (ed.), The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress 2002: Towards a Social Understanding of Productivity, volume 2 Centre for the Study of Living Standards & The Institutute for Research on Public Policy.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003. "Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 383, McMaster University.
    5. Gu, Wulong & Baldwin, John R., 2003. "Participation in Export Markets and Productivity Performance in Canadian Manufacturing," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2003011e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    6. Benoit Robidoux, 2003. "Future Productivity Growth in Canada: The Role of the Service Sector," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 58-65, Fall.
    7. Harris, Richard G., 1991. "Economic impact and transition effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 421-434.
    8. Tiff Macklem, 2003. "Future Productivity Growth in Canada: Comparing to the United States," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 50-57, Fall.
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