APOCALYPSE NO: Population Aging and the Future of Health Care Systems
AbstractIllness increases with age. All else equal, an older population has greater needs for health care. This logic has led to dire predictions of skyrocketing costs-- "apocalyptic demography". Yet numerous studies have shown that aging effects are relatively small, and all else is not equal. Cost projections rest on specific assumptions about trends in age- specific morbidity and health care use that are far from self-evident. Sharply contrasting assumptions, for example, are made by Fries, who foresees a "compression of morbidity" and falling needs. Long term trends in health care use in British Columbia show minimal effects of population aging, but major effects, up and down, from changes in age- specific use patterns. Why then is the demographic apocalypse story so persistent, despite numerous contrary studies? It serves identifiable economic interests.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by McMaster University in its series Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers with number 59.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4M4
Phone: (905) 525-9140 ext. 22765
Fax: (905) 521-8232
Web page: http://www.mcmaster.ca/economics/
More information through EDIRC
aging; health care utilization; demography; health care financing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-HEA-2002-10-18 (Health Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Michel Grignon, 2005.
"Aging, Health and Aggregate Medical Care Spending in France,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2005-05, McMaster University.
- Michel Grignon, 2005. "Aging, Health and Aggregate Medical Care Spending in France," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-06, McMaster University.
- Constantina Safiliou-Rothschild, 2009. "Are Older People Responsible for High Healthcare Costs?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 57-64, 04.
- Peine & Ingo Rollwagen & Louis Neven, 2012. "Exploring new patterns of user involvement – baby boomers and the future of consumption," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 12-09, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Sep 2012.
- Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006.
"Health expenditure growth : reassessing the threat of ageing,"
- Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.