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APOCALYPSE NO: Population Aging and the Future of Health Care Systems

Author

Listed:
  • R.G. Evans
  • K.M. McGrail
  • S.G. Morgan
  • M.L. Barer
  • C. Hertzman

Abstract

Illness increases with age. All else equal, an older population has greater needs for health care. This logic has led to dire predictions of skyrocketing costs-- "apocalyptic demography". Yet numerous studies have shown that aging effects are relatively small, and all else is not equal. Cost projections rest on specific assumptions about trends in age- specific morbidity and health care use that are far from self-evident. Sharply contrasting assumptions, for example, are made by Fries, who foresees a "compression of morbidity" and falling needs. Long term trends in health care use in British Columbia show minimal effects of population aging, but major effects, up and down, from changes in age- specific use patterns. Why then is the demographic apocalypse story so persistent, despite numerous contrary studies? It serves identifiable economic interests.

Suggested Citation

  • R.G. Evans & K.M. McGrail & S.G. Morgan & M.L. Barer & C. Hertzman, 2001. "APOCALYPSE NO: Population Aging and the Future of Health Care Systems," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 59, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:59
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap59.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003. "Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 102, McMaster University.
    2. Peine, Alexander & Rollwagen, Ingo & Neven, Louis, 2014. "The rise of the “innosumer”—Rethinking older technology users," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 199-214.
    3. J.C. Herbert Emery, 2010. "Understanding the Political Economy of the Evolution and Future of Single-Payer Public Health Insurance in Canada," SPP Briefing Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 3(2), February.
    4. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963, September.
    5. Peine & Ingo Rollwagen & Louis Neven, 2012. "Exploring new patterns of user involvement – baby boomers and the future of consumption," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 12-09, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Sep 2012.
    6. William Robson & Colin Busby & Aaron Jacobs, 2014. "Healthcare and an Aging Population: Managing Slow-Growing Revenues and Rising Health Spending in British Columbia," e-briefs 195, C.D. Howe Institute.
    7. Constantina Safiliou-Rothschild, 2009. "Are Older People Responsible for High Healthcare Costs?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 57-64, April.
    8. Di Matteo, Livio & Cantarero-Prieto, David, 2018. "The Determinants of Public Health Expenditures: Comparing Canada and Spain," MPRA Paper 87800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Fabio Pammolli & Francesco Porcelli & Francesco Vidoli & Monica Auteri & Guido Borà, 2017. "La spesa sanitaria delle Regioni in Italia - Saniregio2017," Working Papers CERM 01-2017, Competitività, Regole, Mercati (CERM).
    10. Morgan, Steven G. & Agnew, Jonathan D. & Barer, Morris L., 2004. "Seniors' prescription drug cost inflation and cost containment: evidence from British Columbia," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 299-307, June.
    11. Ethel Yiranbon & Zhou Lulin & Henry Asante Antwi & Emmanuel Opoku Marfo & Kwame Oduro Amoako & Daniel Kwame Offin, 2014. "Evaluating the Consequences of Ageing Population on Healthcare Cost to Ghana using Inflation-Adjusted Expenditure and Demographic Factors," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 282-290, April.
    12. Di Matteo, Livio, 2005. "The macro determinants of health expenditure in the United States and Canada: assessing the impact of income, age distribution and time," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 23-42, January.
    13. Jean-Luc Heeb & Véronique Haberey-Knuessi, 2014. "Health Professionals Facing Burnout: What Do We Know about Nursing Managers?," Nursing Research and Practice, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-7, April.
    14. Berta, Whitney & Laporte, Audrey & Zarnett, Dara & Valdmanis, Vivian & Anderson, Geoffrey, 2006. "A pan-Canadian perspective on institutional long-term care," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(2-3), pages 175-194, December.
    15. William Robson & Colin Busby & Aaron Jacobs, 2015. "Managing Healthcare for an Aging Population: Are Demographics a Fiscal Iceberg for Newfoundland and Labrador?," e-briefs 200, C.D. Howe Institute.
    16. Mehrdad Roham & Anait R. Gabrielyan & Norman P. Archer & Michel L. Grignon & Byron G. Spencer, 2014. "The Impact Of Technological Intensity Of Service Provision On Physician Expenditures: An Exploratory Investigation," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 1224-1241, October.
    17. Constantina Safiliou-Rothschild, 2009. "Are Older People Responsible for High Healthcare Costs?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(01), pages 57-64, April.
    18. William Robson & Colin Busby & Aaron Jacobs, 2014. "Managing Healthcare for an Aging Population: Ontario’s Troubling Collision Course," e-briefs 192, C.D. Howe Institute.
    19. Michel Grignon, 2005. "Aging, Health and Aggregate Medical Care Spending in France," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-05, McMaster University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; health care utilization; demography; health care financing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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