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Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

The aging of the population is expected to result in substantial increases in the costs of maintaining health care and pension programs, and that is a source of widespread concern. However, a proper assessment requires that attention be given to all categories of government expenditure, including education and others associated with younger age groups, and not just those associated with the older population. It requires also that privately provided goods and services be considered, since their costs must be charged against the same national income as publicly provided ones. Beyond that, it is important to recognize that population change affects not only the demand side of the economy, but also the supply side -- the economy's productive capacity. An important conclusion is that while other influences will no doubt play a role, demographic effects by themselves are likely to cause government expenditure (all categories, all levels of government combined) to increase by no more than the rate of growth of the population, and by less than the rate of growth of the gross domestic product. Taking public and private costs together, and assigning appropriate weights to different age groups, the overall "dependency ratio" can be expected to remain at its current low level for another decade and a half or two decades, and then to rise as the baby boom generation retires in large numbers. However, the projected future ratio never reaches the levels of the 1950s and 1960s. Although the overall "burden" of population aging is manageable, major adjustments will be required in the coming decades, especially in the area of federal/provincial cost sharing. For the most part, though, the effects of population aging are predictable, slow, and some time off.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports with number 340.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:340

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Keywords: population aging; economic costs; dependency ratio;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas F. Crossley & Paul V. Grootendorst & Michael R. Veall, 2003. "National Catastrophic Drug Insurance Revisited: Who Would Benefit from Senator Kirby's Recommendations?," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 105, McMaster University.
  2. Malick Souare, 2003. "Macroeconomic Implications of Population Aging and Public Pensions," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 100, McMaster University.
  3. Hwai-Hui Fu & Dennis Lin & Hsien-Tang Tsai & Duan Wei, 2009. "Applying lot-by-lot double sampling plan to reform Taiwan National Health Insurance auditing system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 571-584, July.
  4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2008. "What is Retirement? A Review and Assessment of Alternative Concepts and Measures," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 231, McMaster University.
  5. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic impacts of ageing: an inter-industry approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(12), pages 970-986, October.
  6. Ralf Kronberger, 2005. "Welche Bedeutung hat eine alternde Bevölkerung für das österreichische Steueraufkommen?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 3(1), pages 197-218.
  7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003. "Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 383, McMaster University.
  8. Stiller, Silvia, 2000. "Welfare effects of demographic changes in a Ramsey growth model," HWWA Discussion Papers 107, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  9. Stephen Birch & George Kephart & Gail Tomblin-Murphy & Linda O'Brien-Pallas & Rob Alder & Adrian MacKenzie, 2007. "Human Resources Planning and the Production of Health: A Needs-Based Analytical Framework," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 33(s1), pages 1-16, January.

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