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Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-term Growth

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

Rapid population growth ceased in Canada when the baby boom ended, and gave way to the baby bust; rapid labour force growth lasted for another two decades. As the century closes growth has become much more dependent on immigration. This paper reviews the consequences of the boom-bust sequence for the age distribution of the population and labour force since the 1950s, and provides measures of labour productivity growth over that period. It considers also the implications of three alternative projections extending to 2036, and calculates for each the productivity growth that would be required to attain specified rates of increase in total and per capita gross domestic product. It concludes that to sustain even modest gains in GDP per capita will soon require gains in productivity greater than have been observed in the last two decades.

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File URL: http://socserv.socsci.mcmaster.ca/iesop/papers/iesop_23.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers with number 23.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Nov 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:iesopp:23

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Keywords: demographic trends; labour force participation; productivity; growth;

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Cited by:
  1. Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University.
  2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
  3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.

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