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Economic impacts of ageing: an inter-industry approach

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Author Info

  • Paula C. Albuquerque
  • João C. Lopes

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the evolution of consumption patterns associated with ageing on the relative importance of industries in Portugal, quantifying the changes in production, value added, imported intermediate inputs and employment. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses data from the Family Spending Survey to disaggregate the household column of the Portuguese input-output table in different age groups, projecting their consumption, using the latest demographic projections made by Statistics Portugal (INE). Findings – The study identifies the industries that are likely to be stimulated by the ageing of the Portuguese populations, as well as the industries that will most likely become disadvantaged by the process. Social implications – The task of identification of growing and declining industries due to ageing is important to help the design of employment, environmental and social policies. Originality/value – The contemporary demographic trends in Western societies have added to the importance of studying the economic and social consequences of ageing. The main issues have been the labour market effects, the sustainability of social security systems and long-term care. In this paper, we address a different research topic, quantifying the sectoral impact of the evolution of consumption patterns associated with ageing. This can be useful in addressing the structural challenges of the rapid ageing of the population, common to most of the developed economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal International Journal of Social Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2010)
Issue (Month): 12 (October)
Pages: 970-986

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Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:37:y:2010:i:12:p:970-986

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Related research

Keywords: Consumer behaviour; Consumption; Demographics; Input/output analysis;

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References

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  1. David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Ageing," Working Papers id:506, eSocialSciences.
  2. Kronenberg, Tobias, 2009. "The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2637-2645, August.
  3. Martins, Pedro S. & Novo, Alvaro A. & Portugal, Pedro, 2009. "Increasing the Legal Retirement Age: The Impact on Wages, Worker Flows and Firm Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 4187, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Frank T. Denton & Dean C. Mountain & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Age, Retirement and Expenditure Patterns: An Econometric Study of Older Canadian Households," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 375, McMaster University.
  5. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2003. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 5-44, 08.
  7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
  8. Tim Dowd & Ralph Monaco & Jeffry Janoska, 1998. "Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 239-262.
  9. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2003. "Gerontocracy in Motion? European Cross-Country Evidence on the Labor Market Consequences of Population Ageing," IZA Discussion Papers 956, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. J.H.L. Dewhurst, 2006. "Estimating The Effect Of Projected Household Composition Change On Production In Scotland," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  11. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
  12. William Poole & David C. Wheelock, 2005. "The real population problem: too few working, too many retired," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 4-9.
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Cited by:
  1. João Carlos Lopes & Paula Cristina Albuquerque, 2012. "The characteristics and regional distribution of older workers in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/22, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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