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Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

The rate of growth of GDP can be expressed as the sum of the rates of growth of the population, the proportion of the population from which the labour force is drawn, the overall labour force participation rate, the employment rate, and the aggregate labour productivity ratio. Making use of this simple accounting identity we examine the contributions of the various components to the growth of GDP and GDP per capita in the half-century 1951-2001, decade by decade, and the prospective contributions to future growth under alternative demographic, participation rate, and productivity assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003. "Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 383, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:383
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep/p/qsep383.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. Mc Morrow & W. Roeger, 1999. "The economic consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 138, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 3, McMaster University.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
    4. Evans, R.G. & McGrail, K.M. & Morgan, S.G. & Barer, M.L. & Hertzman, C., 2001. "Apocalypse No: Population Aging and the Future of Health Care Systems," Centre for Health Services and Policy Research 2001:3r, University of British Columbia - Centre for Health Services and Policy Research..
    5. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2000. "Some Demographic Consequences of Revising the Definition of 'Old' to Reflect Future Changes in Life Table Probabilities," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 22, McMaster University.
    6. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "PMEDS-D Users' Manual," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 326, McMaster University.
    7. R.G. Evans & K.M. McGrail & S.G. Morgan & M.L. Barer & C. Hertzman, 2001. "APOCALYPSE NO: Population Aging and the Future of Health Care Systems," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 59, McMaster University.
    8. Faini,Riccardo C. & de Melo,Jaime & Zimmermann,Klaus (ed.), 1999. "Migration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662338.
    9. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas A. Wilson, 2003. "A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 46-49, Fall.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population change; economic growth; simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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