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L’impact du choc démographique sur le niveau de vie à long terme

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  • Fortin, Pierre

    (Département de sciences économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal)

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    Abstract

    All modern industrial societies have now entered a regime of low fertility that is the outcome of profound and lasting causes (in particular, technological) and is accompanied by a radical and permanent change in the role of women. The resulting demographic slowdown will no doubt have favourable consequences on the employment and wages of the baby-bust children (who are now 25 years old or less), and unfavourable consequences on the labour market performance of the baby-boom children (who are now entering the 45-and-over age group). Toutes les sociétés industrielles évoluent maintenant dans un régime de sous-fécondité qui relève de causes profondes et durables (notamment technologiques) et qui s’accompagne d’un changement radical et définitif du rôle des femmes. Sur le plan de l’emploi comme sur le plan des salaires, le ralentissement démographique qui en découle aura sans doute des conséquences favorables sur les enfants du baby-bust qui ont aujourd’hui moins de 25 ans et des conséquences défavorables pour les enfants du baby-boom qui entrent aujourd’hui dans le groupe des 45 ans ou plus.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 65 (1989)
    Issue (Month): 3 (septembre)
    Pages: 364-395

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:65:y:1989:i:3:p:364-395

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    1. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    2. Modigliani, Franco, 1985. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    3. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    5. Clark, Robert L & Kreps, Juanita & Spengler, Joseph J, 1978. "Economics of Aging: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 919-62, September.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December.
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