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The Economics of Population Ageing

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Author Info
John Stephenson
Grant Scobie () (The University of Auckland)
Abstract

Demographic forecasts predict that over the next fifty years the proportion of people in New Zealand over the age of 65 will more than double, from 12 percent in 1999 to 26 percent in 2050. This paper reviews potential economic implications of this demographic change in the following broad categories: Demographic change, Labour Markets, Fiscal Impacts, Capital Markets, and Long-run economic growth effects. A synopsis is made of the key economic and demographic issues relating to each category, and the paper highlights those issues to be prioritised in further research. The paper also questions the existing frameworks and methodologies that have been used to study population ageing. Two issues stand out in this regard. Firstly, there is a tendency to view population ageing as a “static” phenomenon. The economic implications of population ageing are pervasive and complex. Future research may benefit from attention to individual behavioural responses to ageing and into the underlying demographic dynamics of population ageing. Secondly, the future economic impacts of an ageing population are inherently uncertain. Future research could well incorporate methodological approaches that attempt to account for these inherent uncertainties.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2002/02-04/twp02-04.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 02/04.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/04

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Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
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Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
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Related research
Keywords: Population Ageing Economics and Demographic Change

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped
J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alan J. Auerbach, 1994. "The U.S. Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here and Where We're Going," NBER Working Papers 4709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Thai Than Dang & Pablo Antolin & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Buiter, Willem H, 2001. "Notes on 'A Code for Fiscal Stability.'," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-19, January.
    Other versions:
  5. Alan J. Auerbach, 1997. "Quantifying the Current U.S. Fiscal Imbalance," NBER Working Papers 6119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ronald Lee & Jonathan Skinner, 1999. "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 117-140, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Polackova, Hana, 1997. "Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1703, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stiroh, Kevin J, 1998. "Long-Run Growth Projections and the Aggregate Production Function: A Survey of Models Used by the U.S. Government," Contemporary Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 467-79, October.
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Design of Long-Run Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Brian McCulloch & Jane Frances, 2001. "Financing New Zealand Superannuation," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/20, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  13. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Albert Jaeger & Sheetal K. Chand, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Benge, M. & Wells, G., 1998. "Growth in a Small Open Economy," Papers 350, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mathieu Lefebvre, 2006. "Population ageing and consumption demand in Belgium," CREPP Working Papers 0604, Centre de Recherche en Economie Publique et de la Population (CREPP) (Research Center on Public and Population Economics) HEC-Management School, University of Liège. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-11-13.

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