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The Economics of Population Ageing

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  • John Stephenson
  • Grant Scobie

    ()
    (The University of Auckland
    The Treasury)

Abstract

Demographic forecasts predict that over the next fifty years the proportion of people in New Zealand over the age of 65 will more than double, from 12 percent in 1999 to 26 percent in 2050. This paper reviews potential economic implications of this demographic change in the following broad categories: Demographic change, Labour Markets, Fiscal Impacts, Capital Markets, and Long-run economic growth effects. A synopsis is made of the key economic and demographic issues relating to each category, and the paper highlights those issues to be prioritised in further research. The paper also questions the existing frameworks and methodologies that have been used to study population ageing. Two issues stand out in this regard. Firstly, there is a tendency to view population ageing as a “static” phenomenon. The economic implications of population ageing are pervasive and complex. Future research may benefit from attention to individual behavioural responses to ageing and into the underlying demographic dynamics of population ageing. Secondly, the future economic impacts of an ageing population are inherently uncertain. Future research could well incorporate methodological approaches that attempt to account for these inherent uncertainties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 02/04.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/04

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Keywords: Population Ageing; Economics and Demographic Change;

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References

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  1. Buiter, Willem H, 1998. "Notes on 'A Code for Fiscal Stability'," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1831, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. Alan J. Auerbach, 1994. "The U.S. Fiscal Problem: Where We are, How We Got Here, and Where We're Going," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 141-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers, OECD Publishing 305, OECD Publishing.
  14. Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers, International Monetary Fund 147, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Brian McCulloch & Jane Frances, 2001. "Financing New Zealand Superannuation," Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury 01/20, New Zealand Treasury.
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  17. Peter A. Diamond, 1999. "What Stock Market Returns To Expect For The Future?," Issues in Brief, Center for Retirement Research ib-2, Center for Retirement Research.
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Cited by:
  1. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series, New Zealand Treasury 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.

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