A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets
AbstractThe Fiscal Responsibility Act 1994 states that, as a principle of responsible fiscal management, a New Zealand government should ensure total Crown debt is at a prudent level by ensuring total operating expenses do not exceed total operating revenues. In this paper a structural VAR model is estimated to evaluate the impact on the government's cash operating surplus (or budget balance) of four independent disturbances: supply, fiscal, real private demand, and nominal disturbances. Based on the distribution of these disturbances, stochastic simulations are undertaken to derive the level of the ex ante cash budget balance needed to achieve an actual cash budget balance, at a given level of probability, at some future time horizon.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal New Zealand Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 36 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Other versions of this item:
- Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2001. "A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/11, New Zealand Treasury.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986.
"Are Business Cycles All Alike?,"
in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Conway, 1998. "Macroeconomic variability in New Zealand: An SVAR study," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 161-186.
- Fisher, Lance A, 1996. "Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(219), pages 345-58, December.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986.
"Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation,"
NBER Working Papers
1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- Fisher, L. & Fackler, P. & Orden, D., 1992.
"Long-Run Identifying Restrictions for an Error-Correction Model of New Zealand Money, Prices and Output,"
92-27, New South Wales - School of Economics.
- Fisher, Lance A. & Fackler, Paul L. & Orden, David, 1995. "Long-run identifying restrictions for an error-correction model of New Zealand money, prices and output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 127-147, February.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
- John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
- Angela Barnes & Steve Leith, 2001. "Budget Management That Counts: Recent Approaches to Budget and Fiscal Management in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/24, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
- Iris Claus & Aaron Gill & Boram Lee & Nathan McLellan, 2006. "An empirical investigation of fiscal policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/08, New Zealand Treasury.
- Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.