Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

Contents:

Author Info

  • John Creedy
  • Grant M Scobie

    ()
    (The Treasury)

Abstract

It is widely recognised that as the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This paper presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation. Attention is focussed on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition we explore the impacts of alternative hypothesis about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions about point estimates of projected social costs.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2002/02-28/twp02-28.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 02/28.

as in new window
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/28

Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Population; projections; stochastic simulation; social expenditure; fiscal costs; New Zealand;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-12, September.
  2. John Creedy, 2000. "The Growth Of Social Expenditure And Population Ageing," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 19(4), pages 15-32, December.
  3. Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 1999. "Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 689, The University of Melbourne.
  4. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
  5. Robert Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2002. "A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-175.
  6. Erwin Diewert & Denis Lawrence, 1999. "Measuring New Zealand’s Productivity," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/05, New Zealand Treasury.
  7. Polackova, Hana, 1997. "Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1703, The World Bank.
  8. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2013. "Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?," Working Paper Series 2820, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
  2. Creedy, John & Makale, Kathleen, 2013. "Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Working Paper Series 2838, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web and Publishing Team, The Treasury).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.