IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzt/nztwps/02-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

Author

Listed:

Abstract

It is widely recognised that as the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This paper presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation. Attention is focussed on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition we explore the impacts of alternative hypothesis about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions about point estimates of projected social costs.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp02-28.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José Alvardo & John Creedy, 998. "Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1396.
    2. John Creedy & Jose Alvarado, 1998. "Social Expenditure Projections: a Stochastic Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-212, September.
    3. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2000. "Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 33(1), pages 49-64, March.
    4. Creedy, John & Alvarado, Jose, 1998. "Social Expenditure Projections: A Stochastic Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 203-212, September.
    5. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Erwin Diewert & Denis Lawrence, 1999. "Measuring New Zealand’s Productivity," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Robert Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam, 2002. "A structural var approach to estimating budget balance targets," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-175.
    8. John Creedy, 2000. "The Growth Of Social Expenditure And Population Ageing," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 19(4), pages 15-32, December.
    9. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. Polackova, Hana, 1997. "Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1703, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    4. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2013. "Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?," Working Paper Series 18777, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    5. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    6. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2013. "Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/22, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1098-1109.
    8. Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Steven V Dunaway, 2004. "An Approach to Long-Term Fiscal Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2004/113, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    10. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    11. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and policy rules under changing demographic forecasts," Discussion Papers 1265, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    2. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    3. John Janssen, 2001. "New Zealand's Fiscal Policy Framework: Experience and Evolution," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/25, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Georgiou, Evangelia A. & Staikouras, Christos C., 2009. "Assessing output and productivity growth in the banking industry," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1317-1340, November.
    6. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    8. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    9. Chrysovalantis Karafillis & Evaggelos Papanagiotou, 2011. "Innovation and total factor productivity in organic farming," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3075-3087.
    10. Megan Claridge & Sarah Box, 2000. "Economic Integration, Sovereignty and Identity: New Zealand in the Global Economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 00/22, New Zealand Treasury.
    11. Andrés Maroto-Sánchez, 2010. "Productivity in the services sector: conventional and current explanations," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 719-746, October.
    12. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    13. Paul Conway & Adrian Orr, 2000. "The process of economic growth in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March.
    14. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    15. Julio Lípez Díaz & Zenón J. Ridruejo, "undated". "Cambio demográfico, inmigración y crecimiento económico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 99, FEDEA.
    16. Chandan Sharma & Sanjay Sehgal, 2010. "Impact of infrastructure on output, productivity and efficiency," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(2), pages 100-121, September.
    17. Paul Gerrans & Marilyn Clark‐Murphy & Craig Speelman, 2010. "Asset allocation and age effects in retirement savings choices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(2), pages 301-319, June.
    18. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.
    19. Iris Claus, 2003. "Changes in New Zealand's Production Structure: An Input Output Analysis," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    20. Ross Guest & John Bryant & Grant Scobie, 2004. "Population ageing in New Zealand: Implications for living standards and the optimal rate of national saving," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population; projections; stochastic simulation; social expenditure; fiscal costs; New Zealand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CSS Web and Publishing, The Treasury (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tregvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.