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Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand

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  • Polackova, Hana

Abstract

In New Zealand in the next 50 years, an aging population is expected to elevate government liabilities and weaken the government's fiscal position. To maintain fiscal balance, the government must either substantially pre-fund future increases in its liabilities or significantly raise taxes in the 2030's-40's, following few small possible tax cuts in the next 10 to 15 years. Expected fiscal problems are related to the increasing costliness of publicly providing for health care and retirement. Moreover, the aging population's negative effects on the fiscal balance could be exacerbated by any slackening in economic performance or in fiscal prudence. Long-term fiscal projections for the country, and literature on the problem, indicate that the most effective way to contain the expected rise in government liabilities is to reform health care and pension policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1703.

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Date of creation: 28 Feb 1997
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1703

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Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; PublicHealth Promotion; Economic Theory&Research; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Economic Theory&Research; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Environmental Economics&Policies; National Governance; Banks&Banking Reform;

References

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  1. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," NBER Working Papers 2685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
  4. Alan Auerbach & Bruce Baker & Laurence Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1997. "Generational Accounting in New Zealand: Is There Generational Balance?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 201-228, May.
  5. Munnell, Alicia H, 1976. "Private Pensions and Saving: New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1013-32, October.
  6. Atkinson, A.B., 1987. "Income maintenance and social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, Elsevier, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 779-908 Elsevier.
  7. Arrau, Patricio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pensions systems and reform : country experiences and research issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 1470, The World Bank.
  8. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June.
  9. Alicia H. Munnell., 1992. "Current taxation of qualified pension plans: has the time come?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 12-25.
  10. Willem H. Buiter & K.M. Kletzer, 1994. "Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency and the Redundancy or Usefulness of Public Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1070, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
  12. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "Fiscal policies, capital formation, and capitalism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 399-420, April.
  13. Vittas, Dimitri & Iglesias, Augusto, 1992. "The rationale and performance of personal pension plans in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 867, The World Bank.
  14. Atkinson, A. B., 1995. "Is the Welfare State necessarily an obstacle to economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 723-730, April.
  15. Valdes-Prieto, Salvador, 1994. "Administrative charges in pensions in Chile, Malaysia, Zambia, and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 1372, The World Bank.
  16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 1471, The World Bank.
  17. Olivia S. Mitchell & Ping-Lung Hsin, . "Public Pension Governance and Performance," Pension Research Council Working Papers, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania 94-1, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
  18. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
  2. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury.
  3. John Janssen, 2001. "New Zealand's Fiscal Policy Framework: Experience and Evolution," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/25, New Zealand Treasury.
  4. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
  5. Ross Guest & John Bryant & Grant Scobie, 2003. "Population Ageing In New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/10, New Zealand Treasury.

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