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Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand

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Polackova, Hana

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Abstract

In New Zealand in the next 50 years, an aging population is expected to elevate government liabilities and weaken the government's fiscal position. To maintain fiscal balance, the government must either substantially pre-fund future increases in its liabilities or significantly raise taxes in the 2030's-40's, following few small possible tax cuts in the next 10 to 15 years. Expected fiscal problems are related to the increasing costliness of publicly providing for health care and retirement. Moreover, the aging population's negative effects on the fiscal balance could be exacerbated by any slackening in economic performance or in fiscal prudence. Long-term fiscal projections for the country, and literature on the problem, indicate that the most effective way to contain the expected rise in government liabilities is to reform health care and pension policies.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1703.

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Date of creation: 28 Feb 1997
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1703

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Related research
Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; PublicHealth Promotion; Economic Theory&Research; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Economic Theory&Research; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Environmental Economics&Policies; National Governance; Banks&Banking Reform;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Vittas, Dimitri & Iglesias, Augusto, 1992. "The rationale and performance of personal pension plans in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 867, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  4. Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1471, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alan Auerbach & Bruce Baker & Laurence Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1997. "Generational Accounting in New Zealand: Is There Generational Balance?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 201-228, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Valdes-Prieto, Salvador, 1994. "Administrative charges in pensions in Chile, Malaysia, Zambia, and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1372, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Atkinson, A.B., 1987. "Income maintenance and social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 779-908 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Munnell, Alicia H, 1976. "Private Pensions and Saving: New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1013-32, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Atkinson, A. B., 1995. "Is the Welfare State necessarily an obstacle to economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 723-730, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alicia H. Munnell., 1992. "Current taxation of qualified pension plans: has the time come?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 12-25.
  14. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "Fiscal policies, capital formation, and capitalism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 399-420, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Willem H. Buiter & K.M. Kletzer, 1994. "Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency and the Redundancy or Usefulness of Public Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1070, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ross Guest & John Bryant & Grant Scobie, 2003. "Population Ageing In New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/10, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  3. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  5. John Janssen, 2001. "New Zealand's Fiscal Policy Framework: Experience and Evolution," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/25, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
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