IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/2555.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Wang
  • Dianqing Xu
  • Zhi Wang
  • FanZhai

Abstract

The main problems with China's pension system--the pension burdens of state enterprises and the agency of the population--have deepened in recent years. Using a new computable general equilibrium model that differentiates between three types of enterprise ownership and 22 groups in the labor force, the authors estimate the effects of pension reform in China, comparing various options for financing the transition cost. They examine the impact that various reform options would have on the system's sustainability, on overall economic growth, and on income distribution. The results are promising. The current pay-as-you-go system, with a notional individual account, remains unchanged in the first scenario examined. Simulations show this system to be unsustainable. Expanding coverage under this system would improve financial viability in the short run but weaken it in the long run. Other scenarios assume that the transition cost will be financed by various taxes and that a new, fully funded individual account will be established in 2001. The authors compare the impact of a corporate tax, a value-added tax, a personal income tax, and a consumption tax. They estimate the annual transition cost to be about 0.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2000 and 2010, declining to 0.3 percent by 2050. Using a personal income tax to finance the transition cost would best promote economic growth and reduce income inequality. Levying a social security tax and injecting fiscal resources to finance the transition costs would help make the reformed public pillar sustainable. To finance a benefit of 20 percent of the average wage, a contribution rate of only 10 percent-12.5 percent would be enough to balance the basic pension pillar. Gradually increasing the retirement age would further reduce the contribution rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Wang & Dianqing Xu & Zhi Wang & FanZhai, 2001. "Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2555, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2555
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2001/03/26/000094946_01032007445537/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, Sherman & Kilkenny, Maureen & Hanson, Kenneth, 1990. "The USDA/ERS Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of the United States," Staff Reports 278341, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Wang, Zhi, 1997. "China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(2-3), pages 239-264, December.
    3. Haindl Rondanelli, Erik, 1996. "Chilean pension fund reform and its impact on saving," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34299, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Schwarz, Anita M. & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1999. "Taking stock of pension reforms around the world," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20533, The World Bank.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Samwick, Andrew A., 1992. "Social Security Rules and Marginal Tax Rates," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
    7. Henry J. Aaron, 1977. "Demographic Effects on the Equity of Social Security Benefits," International Economic Association Series, in: Martin S. Feldstein & Robert P. Inman (ed.), The Economics of Public Services, chapter 7, pages 151-173, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Wang, Zhi & Slagle, James, 1996. "An object-oriented knowledge-based approach for formulating applied general equilibrium models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 209-236.
    10. Kenneth A. Lewis & Laurence S. Seidman, 2002. "Funding Social Security: The Transition in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-180, Spring.
    11. Vittas, Dimitri, 1995. "Sequencing social security, pension, and insurance reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1551, The World Bank.
    12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Pension reform and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1471, The World Bank.
    13. repec:idb:wpaper:322 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. von Gersdorff, Hermann, 1997. "Pension reform in Bolivia : innovative solutions to common problems," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1832, The World Bank.
    15. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    16. Gramlich, Edward M, 1996. "Different Approaches for Dealing with Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 358-362, May.
    17. Morande, Felipe G., 1998. "Savings in Chile. What went right?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 201-228, October.
    18. Palacios, Robert & Rocha, Roberto, 1998. "The Hungarian pension system in transition," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20048, The World Bank.
    19. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    20. Xu, Dianqing, 1996. "The chasm in the transition: A CGE analysis of Chinese economic reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 117-139, April.
    21. Disney, Richard, 1999. "Notional accounts as a pension reform strategy : an evaluation," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 21302, The World Bank.
    22. Felipe Morandé, 1996. "Savings in Chile: What Went Right?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 5922, Inter-American Development Bank.
    23. Wang, Zhi & Kinsey, Jean, 1994. "Consumption and saving behavior under strict and partial rationing," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 83-100.
    24. Kotlikoff, Laurence, 1996. "Privatizing School Security at Home and Abroad," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 368-372, May.
    25. Howe, Howard, 1975. "Development of the extended linear expenditure system from simple saving assumptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 305-310, July.
    26. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
    27. Atkinson, A.B., 1987. "Income maintenance and social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 779-908, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2011. "Is there any gain from social security privatization?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 278-289, September.
    2. repec:ilo:ilowps:391561 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chen, Vivian Y., 2004. "A Macro Analysis of China Pension Pooling System: Incentive Issues and Financial Problem," Discussion Paper 195, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Bairoliya, Neha & Canning, David & Miller, Ray & Saxena, Akshar, 2018. "The macroeconomic and welfare implications of rural health insurance and pension reforms in China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 71-92.
    5. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
    6. Nong Zhu & Heng-fu Zou, 2006. "Reform of Social Security System in China," CEMA Working Papers 565, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James, Estelle, 1997. "New systems for old age security - theory, practice, and empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1766, The World Bank.
    2. James, Estelle, 1998. "New Models for Old-Age Security: Experiments, Evidence, and Unanswered Questions," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 271-301, August.
    3. Wang, Yan & Xu, Dianqing & Wang, Zhi & Zhai, Fan, 2004. "Options and impact of China's pension reform: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 105-127, March.
    4. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    5. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Tapen Sinha, 2000. "A primer and assessment of social security reform in Mexico," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 85(Q1), pages 1-23.
    6. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Axel Börsch‐Supan, 2000. "Was lehrt uns die Empirie in Sachen Rentenreform?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(4), pages 431-451, November.
    8. Rocha, Roberto & Vittas, Dimitri, 2001. "Pension reform in Hungary : a preliminary assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2631, The World Bank.
    9. Wang, Zhi & Zhai, Fan, 1998. "Tariff Reduction, Tax Replacement, and Implications for Income Distribution in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 358-387, June.
    10. Sergio Cesaratto, 2002. "The Economics of Pensions: A non-conventional approach," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 149-177.
    11. Wang, Zhi, 1997. "China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(2-3), pages 239-264, December.
    12. Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2007. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 225-252, June.
    13. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    14. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Yan Wang & Fan Zhai, 2004. "La réforme des retraites en Chine : enjeux, options et conséquences," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 309-328.
    16. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Los efectos de la Reforma uruguaya de la Seguridad Social en el ahorro," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1098, Department of Economics - dECON.
    17. Marko Köthenbürger & Panu Poutvaara, 2002. "Social Security Reform and Intergenerational Trade: Is there Scope for a Pareto-Improvement?," CESifo Working Paper Series 795, CESifo.
    18. Brian S. Armour & M. Melinda Pitts, 2007. "Smoking: taxing health and Social Security," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 92(Q 3), pages 27-41.
    19. Srinivas, P.S. & Whitehouse, Edward & Yermo, Juan, 2000. "Regulating private pension funds’ structure, performance and investments: cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 14753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Walter Fisher & Christian Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform and labor market incentives," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 769-803, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2555. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.