IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v22y2011i3p278-289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there any gain from social security privatization?

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Shiyu
  • Lin, Shuanglin

Abstract

Increasing calls for a social security reform of switching from the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a funded system has been seen in recent decades. This paper examines the effect of this reform on capital accumulation and the welfare of each generation. Three methods are used to finance the pension debt, government debt financing, tax financing, and government asset financing. With government debt or tax financing, the market equilibrium remains unchanged and all generations are as well off in the new system as in the PAYG system. Thus, switching from the PAYG system to a funded system is neutral. With government asset financing, the interest rate will decrease, private capital will increase, but the total output may either increase or decrease. The welfare effect is also ambiguous in general, depending on the rate of return of government assets. With plausible parameters, our simulation shows that the reform will lower the interest rate, increase private capital, and lower government capital in the short run, but raise government capital and increase output in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2011. "Is there any gain from social security privatization?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 278-289, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:278-289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X11000186
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shuanglin Lin, 2008. "Forced Savings, Social Safety Net, and Family Support: A New Old-Age Security System for China," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 10-44, November.
    2. Brunner, Johann K., 1996. "Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 131-146, April.
    3. Boardman, Anthony E & Vining, Aidan R, 1989. "Ownership and Performance in Competitive Environments: A Comparison of the Performance of Private, Mixed, and State-Owned Enterprises," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-33, April.
    4. Huizinga, Harry & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 2001. "Privatization, public investment, and capital income taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 399-414, December.
    5. Feldstein, Martin, 1999. "Social security pension reform in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 99-107.
    6. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1996. "Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    9. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    10. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Useful and Why It is Not Useful," Munich Reprints in Economics 19859, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Yan Wang & Dianqing Xu & Zhi Wang & FanZhai, 2001. "Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2555, The World Bank.
    13. Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1998. "Perspectives on the Social Security Crisis and Proposed Solutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 142-150, May.
    14. Futagami, Koichi & Morita, Yuichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1993. " Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 607-625, December.
    15. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    16. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Needed and Why It is Not Needed," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 7(4), pages 389-410, August.
    17. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
    18. Yakita, Akira, 2008. "Sustainability of public debt, public capital formation, and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 897-914, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2016. "Population aging and China's social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-95.
    2. Bruhn, Manfred & Schäfer, Daniela B. & Schoenmüller, Verena, 2012. "Markenkommunikation auf Social Media-Plattformen – Anforderungen aus Konsumentensicht und deren Einfluss auf Zielgrössen des Markenmanagements," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 66(1), pages 64-84.
    3. Wang, Lijian & Béland, Daniel & Zhang, Sifeng, 2014. "Pension fairness in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-36.
    4. Cheng, Terence C. & Joyce, Catherine M. & Scott, Anthony, 2013. "An empirical analysis of public and private medical practice in Australia," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 43-51.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    2. Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2016. "Population aging and China's social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-95.
    3. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Europe's Demographic Deficit," Munich Reprints in Economics 934, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Kolmar, Martin & Meier, Volker, 2012. "Intragenerational externalities and intergenerational transfers," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 531-548, October.
    5. Mark A. Roberts, 2013. "Pareto-improving pension reform through technological implementation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(3), pages 317-342, July.
    6. Georg Hirte, 2003. "The Political Feasibility of Privatizing Old‐Age Insurance," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 507-525, September.
    7. Frassi, Benedetta & Gnecco, Giorgio & Pammolli, Fabio & Wen, Xue, 2019. "Intragenerational redistribution in a funded pension system," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 271-303, April.
    8. Breyer Friedrich, 2000. "Kapitaldeckungs- versus Umlageverfahren," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 1(4), pages 383-405, November.
    9. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2009. "Pension Funding In A Unionized Economy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 213-231, May.
    10. Fehr, Hans, 2016. "CGE modeling social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 475-494.
    11. Hirte, Georg, 2001. "Pension Policies for an Aging Society," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 14, number urn:isbn:9783161475399, September.
    12. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
    13. Andersen, Torben M. & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Gestsson, Marias H., 2021. "Pareto-improving transition to fully funded pensions under myopia," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 169-212, June.
    14. Marko Köthenbürger & Panu Poutvaara, 2006. "Social Security Reform and Investment in Education: Is There Scope for a Pareto Improvement?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(290), pages 299-319, May.
    15. Yasuoka, Masaya & Miyake, Atsushi, 2013. "Public debt, child allowances and pension benefits with endogenous fertility," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-25.
    16. Robert Fenge & Beatrice Scheubel, 2017. "Pensions and fertility: back to the roots," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 93-139, January.
    17. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Useful and Why It is Not Useful," NBER Working Papers 7592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3545-3567, November.
    19. Hans Fehr & Wenche Irén Sterkeby & Øystein Thøgersen, 2003. "Social security reforms and early retirement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 345-361, May.
    20. Zandberg, Eelco & Spierdijk, Laura, 2013. "Funding of pensions and economic growth: are they really related?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 151-167, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:278-289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.