Is there any gain from social security privatization?
AbstractIncreasing calls for a social security reform of switching from the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a funded system has been seen in recent decades. This paper examines the effect of this reform on capital accumulation and the welfare of each generation. Three methods are used to finance the pension debt, government debt financing, tax financing, and government asset financing. With government debt or tax financing, the market equilibrium remains unchanged and all generations are as well off in the new system as in the PAYG system. Thus, switching from the PAYG system to a funded system is neutral. With government asset financing, the interest rate will decrease, private capital will increase, but the total output may either increase or decrease. The welfare effect is also ambiguous in general, depending on the rate of return of government assets. With plausible parameters, our simulation shows that the reform will lower the interest rate, increase private capital, and lower government capital in the short run, but raise government capital and increase output in the long run.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco
Social security reforms PAYG system Funded system Overlapping generations model;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1998. "Perspectives on the Social Security Crisis and Proposed Solutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 142-50, May.
- Chow, Gregory C, 1993.
"Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-42, August.
- Brunner, Johann K., 1993.
"Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness,"
Discussion Papers, Series 1
266, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
- Brunner, Johann K., 1996. "Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 131-146, April.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1996.
"Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters,"
in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 1-32
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1995. "Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 5330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1995. "Privatization of Social Security: How it Works and Why it Matters," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 66, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Yan Wang & Dianqing Xu & Zhi Wang & FanZhai, 2001. "Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2555, The World Bank.
- Yakita, Akira, 2008. "Sustainability of public debt, public capital formation, and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 897-914, April.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Useful and Why It is Not Useful," NBER Working Papers 7592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein, 1998.
"Social Security Pension Reform in China,"
NBER Working Papers
6794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997.
"The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal for a Partial Transition to a Funded System," NBER Working Papers 6229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
- Huizinga, Harry & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 2001.
"Privatization, public investment, and capital income taxation,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 399-414, December.
- Huizinga, H.P. & Nielsen, S.B., 1997. "Privatization, public investment and capital income taxation," Discussion Paper 1997-09, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Huizinga, Harry & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1997. "Privatization, public investment, and capital income taxation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1741, The World Bank.
- Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feldstein, Martin, 1999. "Social Security Pension Reform in China," Scholarly Articles 2794835, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Boardman, Anthony E & Vining, Aidan R, 1989. "Ownership and Performance in Competitive Environments: A Comparison of the Performance of Private, Mixed, and State-Owned Enterprises," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-33, April.
- Shuanglin Lin, 2008. "Forced Savings, Social Safety Net, and Family Support: A New Old-Age Security System for China," Chinese Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(6), pages 10-44, November.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.