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Europe's Demographic Deficit

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  • Sinn, Hans-Werner

Abstract

Due to exceptionally low birth rates, the dynamism of Europe will be lagging behind that of other regions of the world for the time being. The paper assembles a rich body of comparative empirical data to clarify the extent of the demographic problems for the EU countries. It advances the view that the low birth rates in part result from early government interventions in terms of socializing the fruits of human capital investment via the pay-as-you-go pension system. To mitigate the extent of socialization, it considers a policy of freezing the contribution rates within the existing pensions systems, forcing the childless to save and providing an additional tax-financed "child pension" tax to parents.

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File URL: http://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/934/1/sinn-europes-demographic-deficit.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Munich Reprints in Economics with number 934.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in De Economist 153(2005): pp. 1-45
Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:934

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Keywords: pension system; birth rate; human capital; demography;

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References

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  1. Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Working Paper Series, Research Institute of Industrial Economics 580, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  2. Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, December.
  3. Uebelmesser Silke, 2004. "Political Feasibility of Pension Reforms," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, September.
  4. Homburg, Stefan, 1997. "Old-age Pension Systems: A Theoretical Evaluation," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 233-246.
  5. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Werding, Martin, 1998. "Zur Rekonstruktion des Generationenvertrages," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 3, number urn:isbn:9783161468896, July.
  7. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863 Elsevier.
  8. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Zuwanderung nach der EU-Osterweiterung: Wo liegen die Probleme?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 18-27, 05.
  9. Alessandro Cigno & Luca Casolaro & Furio C. Rosati, 2000. "The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: Var Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 394, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "EU Enlargement, Migration and the New Constitution," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 19609, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  11. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Homburg, Stefan, 1990. "The Efficiency of Unfunded Pension Schemes," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 640-647.
  13. Cigno, Alessandro & Camillio Rosati, Furio, 1997. "Rise and fall of the Japanese saving rate: The role of social security and intra-family transfers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 81-92, March.
  14. Heikki Oksanen, 2001. "A Case for Partial Funding of Pensions with an Application to the EU Candidate Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 466, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2004. "Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 159-200, June.
  16. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Brunner, Johann K., 1993. "Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness," Discussion Papers, Series I 266, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
  18. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "Pension Reform and Demographic Crisis: Why a Funded System is Needed and why it is not Needed," CESifo Working Paper Series 195, CESifo Group Munich.
  19. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1998. "The Pay-As-You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device," NBER Working Papers 6610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
  21. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Immigration Following EU Eastern Enlargement," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 40-47, October.
  22. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2000. "Rentenniveausenkung und Teilkapitaldeckung - ifo Empfehlungen zur Konsolidierung des Umlageverfahrens," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(18), pages 12-25, 06.
  23. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Werding, 2006. "Kinderrente und Vorsorgepflicht - der ifo-Vorschlag zur Lösung der demographischen Krise des Rentensystems," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(07), pages 44-53, 04.
  2. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "Demographic Pressure in the European Union," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  3. Robert Fenge & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2006. ""Generation Enkellos" und Rentenbeitragsrabatt für Eltern," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(05), pages 11-18, 03.
  4. Koen Caminada & Kees Goudswaard, 2008. "Revenue Effects of Tax Facilities for Pension Savings," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 233-246, June.

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