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Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience

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Author Info
Isaac Ehrlich
Jinyoung Kim

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Abstract

The worldwide problem with pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security systems isn't just financial. This study indicates that these systems may have exerted adverse effects on key demographic factors, private savings, and long-term growth rates. Through a comprehensive endogenous-growth model where human capital is the engine of growth, family choices affect human capital formation, and family formation itself is a choice variable, we show that social security taxes and benefits can create adverse incentive effects on family formation and subsequent household choices, and that these effects cannot be fully neutralized by counteracting intergenerational transfers within families. We implement the model using calibrated simulations as well as panel data from 57 countries over 32 years (1960-92). We find that PAYG tax measures account for a sizeable part of the downward trends in family formation and fertility worldwide, and for a slowdown in the rates of savings and economic growth, especially in OECD countries.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11121.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11121

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J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Juan A. Rojas, 2004. "On the Interaction between Education and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 932-957, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1998. "Social Security, the Family, and Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 390-409, July.
  4. Casey B Mulligan, 1999. "Gerontocracy, Retirement, and Social Security," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 154, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Becker, Gary S, 1993. "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 385-409, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stacy Dickert-Conlin & Cristian Meghea, 2004. "The Effect Of Social Security On Divorce And Remarriage Behavior," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-09, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ehrlich, Isaac & Zhong, Jian-Guo, 1998. "Social Security and the Real Economy: An Inquiry into Some Neglected Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 151-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Michael Baker & Emily Hanna & Jasmin Kantarevic, 2004. "The Married Widow: Marriage Penalties Matter!," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 634-664, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Luisa Fuster & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2003. "A welfare analysis of social security in a dynastic framework," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1247-1274, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Boadway, Robin W & Wildasin, David E, 1989. "A Median Voter Model of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 307-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Isaac Ehrlich & Francis T. Lui, 1999. "Bureaucratic Corruption and Endogenous Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S270-S293, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis T, 1991. "Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 1029-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," Staff Report 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michele Boldrin & Maria Cristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000506, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pascal Hetze & Carsten Ochsen, 2005. "How Aging of the Labor Force Affects Equilibrium Unemployment," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 57, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert Holzmann, 2005. "Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 1885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 303-320, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Isaac Ehrlich, 2007. "The Mystery of Human Capital as Engine of Growth, or Why the US Became the Economic Superpower in the 20th Century," NBER Working Papers 12868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Torberg Falch & Justina A.V. Fischer, 2008. "Does a Generous Welfare State Crowd out Student Achievement? Panel Data Evidence from International Student Tests," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Has Social Security Influenced Family Formation and Fertility in OECD Countries? An Economic and Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 12869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Social Security and Demographic Trends: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 55-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply," PGDA Working Papers 4208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
  10. Giam Pietro Cipriani & Miltiadis Makris, 2009. "PAYG Pensions and Human Capital Accumulation: Some Unpleasant Arithmetic," CHILD Working Papers wp19_09, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY. [Downloadable!]
  11. Luisa Fuster & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2004. "Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework," Macroeconomics 0402008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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