The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: Var Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany
AbstractEstimating saving and fertility simultaneously by the VAR method, we find that social security cover has a positive effect on household saving, and a negative effect on fertility. In Germany, as in other countries where the hypothesis was tested, social security is thus good for growth. A possible explanation for this unconventional finding is that compulsory saving in the form of pension contributions tends to displace intra-family transfers, rather than asset formation. However, the negative effect of social security on fertility tends to erode the system’s own contributory base, because it reduces the number of future contributors. That is one of the reasons why, in Germany as elsewhere, pay-as-you-go pension systems tend to be financially unstable. To some extent, this is counteracted by child-related benefits, which tend to encourage fertility, but the effect appears to be weak.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 394.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Alessandro Cigno, & Luca Casolaro & Furio C. Rosati, 2001. "The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: VAR Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany," CHILD Working Papers wp07_01, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
- J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barro, Robert J, 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Graham, John W., 1989. "International differences in saving rates and the life cycle hypothesis : Reply and further evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1499-1507, September.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 1998.
"The Pay-As-You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device,"
NBER Working Papers
6610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1998. "The Pay-As You-Go Pension System as a Fertility Insurance and Enforcement Device," CEPR Discussion Papers 2023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1996. "Social security in a non-altruistic model with uncertainty and endogenous fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 283-294, May.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Haldrup, Neils, 1998. " An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
- Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2005.
"Pensions and fertility incentives,"
Canadian Journal of Economics,
Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 28-48, February.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Europe's Demographic Deficit," Munich Reprints in Economics 934, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Das demographische Defizit – die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und die Politikimplikationen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(21), pages 03-23, November.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 20-36, 03.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Europe’s Demographic Deficit A Plea For A Child Pension System," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 1-45, December.
- Kruse, Agneta & Nyberg, Kristian, 2004. "Pensions and external effects of ageing; effects on distribution," Working Papers 2004:27, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004.
"The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Munich Reprints in Economics 938, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Oshio, Takashi, 2003. "Social Security, Child Allowances, and Endogenous Fertility," Discussion Paper 171, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.