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The demographic deficit - the facts, the consequences, the causes and their politics implications

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

With its low birth rates Germany is being gradually transformed into a gerontocracy. This development will have fatal results for the effectiveness of the state social security, especially for the pension system, since the contributors necessary for the financing of future pensions will be lacking. Prof. Hans-Werner Sinn presents the most important facts of the demographic crisis, shows the consequences of this crisis, uncovers their causes and discusses governmental measures that could induce a more balanced population structure on the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "The demographic deficit - the facts, the consequences, the causes and their politics implications," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 20-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:05:p:20-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alessandro Cigno & Luca Casolaro & Furio C. Rosati, 2000. "The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: Var Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 394, CESifo.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU enlargement and labour-force migration: Proposals for a gradual convergence of labour markets," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    4. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel, 2003. "Tax benefits for families in an international comparison," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 65-67, March.
    6. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
    7. Cigno, Alessandro & Camillio Rosati, Furio, 1997. "Rise and fall of the Japanese saving rate: The role of social security and intra-family transfers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 81-92, March.
    8. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Migration after EU enlargement: Were is the problem?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 18-27, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maiterth, Ralf, 2005. "Familienpolitik und deutsches Einkommensteuerrecht: empirische Ergebnisse und familienpolitische Schlussfolgerungen," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 7, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    2. Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Vera Gács, 2008. "Fertility and prosperity : links between demography and economic growth," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 42.
    3. Bergs Christian & Schaefer Thilo & Fuest Clemens & Peichl Andreas, 2007. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung: Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 1-27, April.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "The Demographic Deficit – the Facts, the Consequences, the Causes and Policy Implications," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(21), pages 03-23, November.
    5. Barbara Henman, 2004. "Zu den ökonomischen Zusammenhängen zwischen Renten-, Familien- und Bildungspolitik – Ein Plädoyer für die Aufwertung der Erziehungsrente je Kind," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2004, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    6. Kai A. Konrad & Wolfram F. Richter, 2005. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 115-130, February.
    7. Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2003. "Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung Sachsens in der laufenden und den nächsten Dekaden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 9-26, June.
    8. Egger, Peter H. & Radulescu, Doina M., 2012. "Family policy and the number of children: Evidence from a natural experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 524-539.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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