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Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis

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Author Info
Chien-Chiang Lee
Chun-Ping Chang
Abstract

Using panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels such as the full modified OLS, this paper re-examines the long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditure in a bivariate model, employing data on 25 OECD countries from 1980 to 2001. Our cointegration test results show strong evidence in favour of the existence of a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between GDP and social security expenditure after allowing for a heterogeneous country effect. Regarding the panel-based error correction model, we find that GDP and social security expenditure lack short-run causality, but reveal the existence of long-run bidirectional causality. This shows that, in the long run, economic growth must be based on a social welfare policy that should be carried out, and economic growth can facilitate contiguous development in a social welfare policy. Lastly, we also provide evidence to support that social security expenditure can affect growth through the savings and human capital accumulation in OECD countries.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Korean International Economic Association in its journal International Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 20 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 303-320
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Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:20:y:2006:i:3:p:303-320

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Related research
Keywords: Social security expenditure; economic growth; panel cointegration; causality;

References listed on IDEAS
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  6. Jie Zhang & Junsen Zhang, 2004. "How does social security affect economic growth? Evidence from cross-country data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 473-500, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 2003. "Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not exist," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd., vol. 47(3), pages 325-347, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Willem H. Buiter & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1992. "Permanent International Productivity Growth Differentials in an Integrated Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 4220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2000. "The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 615-625, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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