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Social Security and Demographic Trends: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience

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  • Isaac Ehrlich

    (SUNY Buffalo)

  • Jinyoung Kim

    (SUNY Buffalo)

Abstract

The worldwide problem with pay-as-you-go, defined-benefits social security systems isn't just financial. Through a dynamic, overlapping-generations model where forming a family and bearing and educating children are choice variables, we show that social security taxes and benefits generate incentives to reduce both family formation and fertility, and that these effects cannot be fully neutralized by counteracting inter-temporal or intergenerational transfers within families. We implement the model using calibrated simulations as well as panel data from 57 countries over 32 years. We find that PAYG tax measures account for a non-trivial part of the downward trends in family formation and fertility worldwide, especially in OECD countries. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 55-77

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:05-22

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Related research

Keywords: Social security; Family; Human capital; Marriage; Divorce; Fertility; Saving; Growth; Public pension; Pay-as-you-go;

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References

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  1. Becker, Gary S, 1993. "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 385-409, June.
  2. Juan A. Rojas, 2003. "On The Interaction Between Education And Social Security," Economics Working Papers we033511, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  3. Boadway, R.W. & Wildasin, D.E., 1987. "A median voter model of social security," CORE Discussion Papers 1987014, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1999. "Gerontocracy, Retirement, and Social Security," NBER Working Papers 7117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January.
  6. Michele Boldrin & Maria Cristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000506, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ehrlich, Isaac & Zhong, Jian-Guo, 1998. "Social Security and the Real Economy: An Inquiry into Some Neglected Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 151-57, May.
  9. Becker, Gary S & Barro, Robert J, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February.
  10. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
  13. Michael Baker & Emily Hanna & Jasmin Kantarevic, 2004. "The Married Widow: Marriage Penalties Matter!," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 634-664, 06.
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  1. Branislav Žúdel autorom Kriteka: Nerušme dôchodkovú reformu
    by Kriteko in Kritická ekonómia on 2010-12-20 08:14:14
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Cited by:
  1. Ludwig, Alexander & Schelkle, Thomas & Vogel, Edgar, 2010. "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 10196, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  2. Valerio Filoso & Erasmo Papagni, 2011. "Fertility Choice and Financial Development," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2011_02, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  3. Erasmo Papagni, 2008. "The Long-run Effects of Household Liquidity Constraints and Taxation on Fertility, Education, Saving, and Growth," Discussion Papers 11_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  4. Alexander Ludwig & Thomas Schelkle & Edgar Vogel, 2011. "Online Appendix to "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare"," Technical Appendices 08-168, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  5. Falch, Torberg & Fischer, Justina AV, 2008. "Does a generous welfare state crowd out student effort? Panel data evidence from international student tests," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 694, Stockholm School of Economics.
  6. Torberg Falch & Justina AV Fischer, 2008. "Does a generous welfare state crowd out student achievement? Panel data evidence from international student tests," TWI Research Paper Series 31, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  7. Galasso, Vincenzo & Gatti, Roberta & Profeta, Paola, 2008. "Investing for the Old Age: Pensions, Children and Savings," CEPR Discussion Papers 6825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Jellal, Mohamed & Bouzahzah, Mohamed, 2012. "Social security family finance and demography," MPRA Paper 38804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Falch, Torberg & Fischer, Justina AV, 2011. "Welfare state generosity and student performance: Evidence from international student tests," MPRA Paper 35269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Gugushvili, Alexi, 2007. "Giving the ageing of the population how can countries afford pay-as-you-go social insurance pensions?," MPRA Paper 2869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Das demographische Defizit – die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und die Politikimplikationen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(21), pages 03-23, November.
  12. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Has Social Security Influenced Family Formation and Fertility in OECD Countries? An Economic and Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 12869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Aoki, Takaaki, 2008. "On the Implications of Two-way Altruism in Human-Capital-Based OLG Model," MPRA Paper 12492, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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