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Fuentes de la inflación en México, 1989-2000: Un análisis multicausal de corrección de errores

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Author Info
Gerardo Esquivel (El Colegio de México)
Raúl Razo (Banco de México)

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Abstract

This article analyzes the determinants of inflation in Mexico during the 1989–2000 period. Inflation is modelled as a function of deviations in the long-run relations that may exist in the monetary, labour and exchange rate markets. By using cointegration techniques, we obtain an error-correction model where money excess, wage pressure and deviations of the Purchasing Power Parity are possible sources of inflation. The model includes an inertial factor and a policy component due to government-controlled price changes in certain goods. The results show that all the factors mentioned have contributed to the determination of the inflationary dynamics in Mexico.

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Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 181-226
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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:18:y:2003:i:2:p:181-226

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Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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  1. Kamin, Steven B., 2001. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate-based stabilizations: an empirical examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 237-253, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Nymoen, Ragnar, 1989. "Modelling Wages in the Small Open Economy: An Error-Correction Model of Norwegian Manufacturing Wages," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 239-58, August.
  3. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 5. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 2001. "Inflation and the Poor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 160-78, May.
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  7. Manuel Ramos-Francia, 1993. "The Demand for Money in an Unstable Economy: A Cointegration Approach for the Case of Mexico," Working Papers 9306, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    Other versions:
  9. de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998. "Modeling Inflation in Australia," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-49, October.
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  10. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 1-84. [Downloadable!]
  11. Toshitaka Sekine, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/82, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: A synopsis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 395-400, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
  15. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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