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Funding Social Security: The Transition in a Life-Cycle Growth Model

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Author Info

  • Kenneth A. Lewis

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)

  • Laurence S. Seidman

    (University of Delaware)

Abstract

A life-cycle growth model is used to investigate the quantitative impact of gradually converting the financing of social security from pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) to full funding. The magnitudes of the losses and gains that particular age cohorts will experience under alternative speeds of conversion are estimated using empirically-reasonable parameter values based on the econometric literature. Transition path simulations of a gradual three-generation (90-year) conversion show small losses to current workers, but large gains to children and grandchildren of young workers, and even larger gains to future descendants.

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File URL: http://college.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume28/V28N2P159_180.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Eastern Economic Association in its journal Eastern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 28 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
Pages: 159-180

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Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:28:y:2002:i:2:p:159-180

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Web page: http://www.ramapo.edu/eea/journal.html
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Related research

Keywords: Life Cycle; Pay as You Go; Social Security;

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References

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  1. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1997. "The Economics of Prefunding Social Security and Medicare Benefits," NBER Working Papers 6055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1995. "Privatization of Social Security: How it Works and Why it Matters," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 66, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent A. Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1998. "Social Security: Privatization and Progressivity," NBER Working Papers 6428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
  6. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-99, April.
  7. Seidman, Laurence S. & Lewis, Kenneth A., 1999. "The Consumption Tax and the Saving Elasticity," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 1), pages 67-78, March.
  8. Eric M. Engen & William G. Gale & John Karl Scholz, 1994. "Do Saving Incentives Work?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 85-180.
  9. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
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  11. Engen, Eric M. & Gravelle, Jane G. & Smetters, Kent, 1997. "Dynamic Tax Models: Why They Do the Things They Do," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(3), pages 657-82, September.
  12. Barsky, Robert B, et al, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-79, May.
  13. David I. Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 1998. "Self-Control and Saving for Retirement," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 91-196.
  14. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2001. "The Consumption Tax and Transitional Relief," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-120, January.
  15. Zodrow, George R., 1985. "Optimal tax reform in the presence of adjustment costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 211-230, July.
  16. Gramlich, Edward M, 1996. "Different Approaches for Dealing with Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 358-62, May.
  17. Beaudry, Paul & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Exploration Using a US Panel of State Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 495-512, August.
  18. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mary C. Daly & Daniel J. Wilson, 2006. "Keeping up with the Joneses and staying ahead of the Smiths: evidence from suicide data," Working Paper Series 2006-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take us to Dinner? - Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., Eu, Japan and China," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-151, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  3. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2014. "Social Security And Public Debt: Empirical Evidence For The Brazilian Economy," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 066, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," NBER Working Papers 11858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Breyer, Friedrich & Straub, Martin, 1993. "Welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 77-91, January.
  6. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Privatizing U.S. Social Security: some possible effects on intergenerational equity and the economy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 31-37.
  8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Yan Wang & Dianqing Xu & Zhi Wang & FanZhai, 2001. "Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2555, The World Bank.
  10. Fan Zhai & Yan Wang, 2004. "La réforme des retraites en Chine : enjeux, options et conséquences," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 309-328.
  11. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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