Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

La réforme des retraites en Chine : enjeux, options et conséquences

Contents:

Author Info

  • Fan Zhai
  • Yan Wang

Abstract

[fre] La population chinoise vieillit rapidement et la charge du soutien aux personnes âgées est répartie inégalement parmi les régions et les secteurs. La présente étude examine les initiatives de réformes actuelles, compare différentes options de financement du déficit implicite du système de retraite et évalue les effets de la réforme des retraites sur la viabilité du système. Les résultats de simulations indiquent que le système actuel par répartition n’est pas financièrement viable et que le déficit implicite du système de retraite est estimé à environ 46 à 63 % du PIB en 2000. Le pilier public deviendra financièrement viable si les recettes fiscales sont réinjectées pour financer les coûts de transition. Cet article propose d’utiliser les recettes de TVA pour financer les coûts de transition, ce qui permettrait au nouveau système à plusieurs piliers d’être financièrement viable, sans peser toutefois sur la croissance économique. . Classification JEL : H55, D58, O53, P52 [eng] China’s pension reform : challenges, options and impacts . China’s population has been aging rapidly, and the burdens of supporting the elderly are distributed unevenly across regions and sectors. This study discusses the current reform efforts, compares various options for financing the implicit pension debt and estimates the effects of pension reform on the sustainability of the system. Simulation results show that the current pay-as-you-go system is not financially sustainable and the implicit pension debt is estimated at around 46 to 63 percent of GDP in 2000. The public pillar becomes financially sustainable if tax revenues will be injected to finance the transition cost. The paper proposes to use value-added tax revenue to finance the transition cost, which would make the new multipillar system financially sustainable without damping economic growth. . JEL classification : H55, D58, O53, P52

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4189
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189/ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189.pdf?mode=light
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 77 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 309-328

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4189
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecofi

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "Social security reform : the capital accumulation and intergenerational distribution effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 512, The World Bank.
  2. Feldstein, Martin & Samwick, Andrew A., 1992. "Social Security Rules and Marginal Tax Rates," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, March.
  3. James, Estelle, 1992. "Income security for old age : conceptual background and major issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 977, The World Bank.
  4. Kenneth A. Lewis & Laurence S. Seidman, 2002. "Funding Social Security: The Transition in a Life-Cycle Growth Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-180, Spring.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Michel Juillard & Michel Aglietta & Jean Chateau & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touze & Jacques Le Cacheux & Vladimir Borgy, 2006. "World Growth and International Capital Flows in the XXIst Century : A Prospective Analysis with the INGENUE2 Model," Sciences Po publications N° 2006-07, Sciences Po.
  2. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques le Cacheux & Gilles le Garrec & Vincent Touze, 2006. "World Growth and International Capital Flows in the XXIth Century," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.