Population Ageing In New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving
AbstractOver the next 50 years, New Zealand’s population will age substantially. There has been wide debate about whether New Zealand should prepare for population ageing by increasing national savings. The debate had not, however, involved explicit consideration of possible time paths for savings, consumption, debt, and other relevant macroeconomic variables; nor have explicit principles been offered for determining which of these time paths are to be preferred. This paper addresses the question of choosing time paths through the use of a Ramsey-Solow model of optimal saving, adapted for investigating problems of population ageing. The results suggest that population ageing alone would not justify increases in national savings rates beyond those envisaged by current policy. The cost of ageing in terms of reduced real consumption is not large enough to justify large additional savings beyond those currently predicted, and the concomitant reduction in current consumption. The findings concerning national savings and living standards are robust to a variety of specifications of demographic conditions, interest rates, and productivity growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 03/10.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC
consumption; saving; inter-temporal paths; Ramsey model; population ageing; New Zealand;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gordon, R.H. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1994.
"Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally?: Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation,"
358, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-75, December.
- Roger H. Gordon & A. Lans Bovenberg, 1994. "Why is Capital so Immobile Internationally?: Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 4796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bovenberg, A.L. & Gordon, R.H., 1996. "Why is capital so immobile internationally? Possible explanation and implications for capital income taxation," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73564, Tilburg University.
- Gordon, R.H. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1994. "Why is capital so immobile internationally?: Possible explanations and implications for capital income taxation," Discussion Paper 1994-63, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Galor, Oded & Zang, Hyoungsoo, 1997. "Fertility, income distribution, and economic growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 197-229, May.
- Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 1999. "Ageing, Immigration and Optimal National Saving in Australia. a," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 690, The University of Melbourne.
- Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge,"
553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Alan Auerbach & Bruce Baker & Laurence Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1997. "Generational Accounting in New Zealand: Is There Generational Balance?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 201-228, May.
- Polackova, Hana, 1997. "Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1703, The World Bank.
- Avner Ahituv, 2001. "Be fruitful or multiply: On the interplay between fertility and economic development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 51-71.
- repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ross Guest & Grant Scobie & John Bryant, 2003. "Population Ageing in New Zealand: The Impact on Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving with a Flexible Real Exchange Rate," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/34, New Zealand Treasury.
- Grant Scobie & John Gibson & Trinh Le, 2004. "Saving for Retirement: New Evidence for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 04/12, New Zealand Treasury.
- Ross Guest, 2013. "Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/12, New Zealand Treasury.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web and Publishing Team, The Treasury).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.