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Population Ageing In New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving

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Author Info
Ross Guest ()
John Bryant ()
Grant Scobie () (The Treasury)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Over the next 50 years, New Zealand’s population will age substantially. There has been wide debate about whether New Zealand should prepare for population ageing by increasing national savings. The debate had not, however, involved explicit consideration of possible time paths for savings, consumption, debt, and other relevant macroeconomic variables; nor have explicit principles been offered for determining which of these time paths are to be preferred. This paper addresses the question of choosing time paths through the use of a Ramsey-Solow model of optimal saving, adapted for investigating problems of population ageing. The results suggest that population ageing alone would not justify increases in national savings rates beyond those envisaged by current policy. The cost of ageing in terms of reduced real consumption is not large enough to justify large additional savings beyond those currently predicted, and the concomitant reduction in current consumption. The findings concerning national savings and living standards are robust to a variety of specifications of demographic conditions, interest rates, and productivity growth.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2003/03-10/twp03-10.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 03/10.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:03/10

Contact details of provider:
Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
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Related research
Keywords: consumption saving inter-temporal paths Ramsey model population ageing New Zealand

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Polackova, Hana, 1997. "Population aging and financing of government liabilities in New Zealand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1703, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 1999. "Ageing, Immigration and Optimal National Saving in Australia. a," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 690, The University of Melbourne.
  4. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-75, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Galor, Oded & Zang, Hyoungsoo, 1997. "Fertility, income distribution, and economic growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 197-229, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Avner Ahituv, 2001. "Be fruitful or multiply: On the interplay between fertility and economic development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 51-71. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Grant Scobie & John Gibson & Trinh Le, 2004. "Saving for Retirement: New Evidence for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 04/12, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ross Guest & Grant Scobie & John Bryant, 2003. "Population Ageing in New Zealand: The Impact on Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving with a Flexible Real Exchange Rate," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/34, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
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