Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards

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Effect of World Fertility Scenarios on International Living Standards

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ROSS S. GUEST
IAN M. MCDONALD

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Ian Martin McDonald

Abstract

This paper applies a two good, multi-region Ramsey-Solow model of the world economy to determine the impact that alternative world fertility rates would have on international capital markets and living standards. Notable features of the model include: relative consumption demands and relative employment efficiencies that vary by age, traded and non-traded goods, vintage technology, outward-looking reference consumption, a proportion of non-optimising rule-of-thumb consumers and imperfect capital mobility due to asymmetric information. The model suggests that projected demographic change will imply a flow of international capital from the ageing regions to the younger regions; and that the world interest rate will fall. The lower world interest rate will cause a loss in living standards for ageing regions, the lenders, and a gain for the younger regions, who are borrowers. Copyright © 2004 Economic Society of Australia..

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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 80 (2004)
Issue (Month): s1 (09)
Pages: S1-S12
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:80:y:2004:i:s1:p:s1-s12

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Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 92-134, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]

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