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The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability

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Sebastian Barnes
Garry Young

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Abstract

In this paper the causes of the rise in US household debt since the early 1970s are considered, using a calibrated partial equilibrium overlapping generations model. The model explains indebtedness in terms of a consumption-income motive, associated with consumption smoothing, and a housing-finance motive. A credit constraint on borrowing by the old is also introduced to explain why they do not borrow to finance homeownership late in life. Shocks to real interest rates and income growth expectations, combined with demographic changes, are considered to explain the rise in US household debt. The calibrated model is found to be able to explain many features of US household borrowing, both in aggregate and cross-section. In particular, it predicts that the debt to income ratio would have increased substantially during the 1990s and would be expected to continue to grow in coming years. However, the model is unable to account for rising indebtedness during the 1980s when high interest rates, lower income growth and an ageing population would have tended to reduce aggregate borrowing. Alternative explanations, possibly associated with financial liberalisation, may account for borrowing growth during that period.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 206.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:206

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  25. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher Kent & Crystal Ossolinski & Luke Willard, 2007. "The Rise of Household Indebtedness," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Caterina Mendicino, 2005. "Credit Market Development, Asset Prices and Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 74, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, . "The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 266, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Laura Rinaldi & Alicia Sanchis-Arellano, 2006. "Household debt sustainability - What explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Markus Christen & Ruskin Morgan, 2005. "Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 145-173, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andrew Kish, 2006. "Perspectives on recent trends in consumer debt," Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2005. "Boom or Bubble in the US Real Estate Market?," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 260/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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