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Why do Economists Disagree About Policy?

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Author Info
Victor R. Fuchs
Alan B. Krueger
James M. Poterba

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Abstract

This paper reports the results of surveys of specialists in labor economics and public economics at 40 leading research universities in the United States. Respondents provided opinions of policy proposals; quantitative best estimates and 95% confidence intervals for economic parameters; answers to values questions regarding income redistribution, efficiency versus equity, and individual versus social responsibility; and their political party identification. We find considerable disagreement among economists about policy proposals. Their positions on policy are more closely related to their values than to their estimates of relevant economic parameters or to their political party identification. Average best estimates of the economic parameters agree well with the ranges summarized in surveys of relevant literature, but the individual best estimates are usually widely dispersed. Moreover, economists, like experts in many fields, appear more confident of their estimates than the substantial cross-respondent variation in estimates would warrant. Finally although the confidence intervals in general appear to be too narrow, respondents whose best estimates are farther from the median tend to give wider confidence intervals for those estimates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6151.

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Date of creation: Aug 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6151

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H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Poterba, James M & Venti, Steven F & Wise, David A, 1996. "How Retirement Saving Programs Increase Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 91-112, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Poterba, J.M. & Samwick, A.A., 1996. "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption," Working papers 96-2, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  3. James M. Poterba, 1991. "Is the Gasoline Tax Regressive?," NBER Working Papers 3578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hausman, Jerry A., 1985. "Taxes and labor supply," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 213-263 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Diamond, P., 1997. "Rationing Medical Care: An Economist's Perspective," Working papers 97-10, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Caroline M. Hoxby, 1995. "Is There an Equity-Efficiency Trade-Off in School Finance? Tiebout and a Theory of the Local Public Goods Producer," NBER Working Papers 5265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pencavel, John, 1987. "Labor supply of men: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-102 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. LaLonde, Robert J, 1995. "The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 149-68, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," NBER Working Papers 1682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Victor R. Fuchs & Diane M. Reklis, 1994. "Mathematical Achievement in Eighth Grade: Interstate and Racial Differences," NBER Working Papers 4784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Friedman, Benjamin M & Warshawsky, Mark J, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 135-54, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-2), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
  13. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 85-110, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Gramlich, Edward M, 1996. "Different Approaches for Dealing with Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 55-66, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Engen, Eric M & Gale, William G & Scholz, John Karl, 1996. "The Illusory Effects of Saving Incentives on Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 113-38, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Burtless, Gary, 1995. "The Case for Randomized Field Trials in Economic and Policy Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 63-84, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Gordon, Danielle A & Kammen, Daniel M, 1996. "Uncertainty and Overconfidence in Time Series Forecasts: Application to the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 189-98, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Fuchs, Victor R, 1996. "Economics, Values, and Health Care Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 1-24, March.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bruno Frey, 2006. "How Influential is Economics?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 295-311, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ruud Mooij, 2005. "Will Corporate Income Taxation Survive?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 277-301, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2004. "Advising Policymakers Through the Media," IZA Discussion Papers 1001, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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